Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:43:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f08…4cfb world 484 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 120d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$97 (-2%) realized −$100 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate45%190W / 232L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day27.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$211now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$7
14 days−$34
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$13
other 15% +$84
sports 11% −$118
politics 8% −$46
crypto 7% $0
tech 1% +$37
finance 1% −$2
economics 1% +$7
culture 0% +$2
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -1.8% -11.1% 53% 38% -11.4%
≤30d 218 -2.0% -11.4% 48% 34% -6.7%
≤90d 297 -3.2% -12.5% 46% 26% -9.2%
all 422 -0.9% -10.4% 45% 25% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 25% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 21% -18.9%
15% -26.8% 17% -26.8%
20% -33.9% 14% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$211
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses190 / 232
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions63
Markets (closed)422 / 484
History coverage120d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day27.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 63 History 422 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 23¢ 76¢ $4 $15 +$10 (+223%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 81¢ 90¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+12%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 88¢ 92¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? OpenAI 26¢ 36¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+38%)
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No 77¢ 74¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 71¢ 84¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+19%)
Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30? Yes 26¢ 35¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+35%)
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+15%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No 76¢ 82¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 74¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? No 79¢ 90¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? No 81¢ 85¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 77¢ 80¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 72¢ 70¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? No 86¢ 96¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 67¢ 68¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 62¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $26 +$2 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $6 +$2 +31%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +17%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $3 $0 +12%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 14 $9 −$4 -45%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 14 $7 $0 +7%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $6 −$2 -30%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 14 $4 $0 -9%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +17%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $2 +$8 +317%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -14%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +47%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $19 −$2 -8%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 14 $6 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9 +$4 +43%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$2 +172%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +56%
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +47%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $1 +$1 +96%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Jun 13 $2 $0 -3%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 +9%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $7 +$3 +48%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 13 $6 +$2 +33%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 39m
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $1 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $11 1h
Trump meets with Putin by September 30? BUY No 76¢ $3 3h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 5h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 16¢ $2 5h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $1 5h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $1 6h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 42¢ $1 6h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY No 46¢ $2 6h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $1 9h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $4 10h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $1 14h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 35¢ $2 14h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 16h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 16h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $4 17h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 16¢ $2 19h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 20h
Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 National League Championship Series BUY Yes $1 21h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 21¢ $1 21h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $1 22h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $1 22h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 22h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 23h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 51¢ $2 24h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 50¢ $5 24h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $3 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.69 · official $210.41 (match) · 3500 history records