Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:44:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5F 0x5f0b…0c98 sports 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$802 (+16%) realized +$778 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%23W / 18L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$458now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$815
7 days−$815
14 days−$815
30 days−$695
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$629
crypto 26% +$382
other 2% −$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -40.4% -46.1% 35% 35% -47.3%
≤30d 24 -35.4% -41.6% 38% 38% -39.4%
≤90d 34 +1.3% -8.3% 53% 50% +6.8%
all 41 +6.3% -3.8% 56% 54% +8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 54% +8.6%
10% -13.0% 54% -1.8%
15% -21.4% 49% -11.3%
20% -29.1% 41% -20.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +58% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$83 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$458
Realized+$778
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses23 / 18
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions7
Markets (closed)41 / 48
History coverage134d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 48¢ 50¢ $126 $133 +$7 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Up 48¢ 50¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 40¢ 50¢ $50 $63 +$13 (+26%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Up 48¢ 50¢ $56 $59 +$3 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 49¢ 50¢ $52 $54 +$2 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Down 55¢ 50¢ $35 $31 −$4 (-10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Down 54¢ 50¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 22 $108 +$89 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $248 +$214 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 22 $30 +$12 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 22 $65 +$53 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 22 $164 +$40 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $62 −$58 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 22 $27 −$25 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 22 $11 −$10 -94%
Thunder vs. Lakers Jun 22 $29 −$29 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 22 $122 −$122 -100%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights Jun 22 $153 −$153 -100%
Wild vs. Avalanche Jun 22 $87 −$87 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 22 $38 −$38 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 22 $66 −$66 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics Jun 22 $235 −$235 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 22 $184 −$184 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Jun 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Sabres vs. Canadiens Jun 22 $117 −$117 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 22 $14 +$12 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $32 +$29 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $16 +$13 +80%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $153 +$120 +78%
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 14 $179 +$16 +9%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles May 13 $60 −$59 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians May 13 $169 +$102 +60%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S May 13 $378 +$115 +31%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles May 13 $47 +$34 +73%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $62 +$42 +68%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $354 +$230 +65%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 11 $284 +$234 +82%
Warriors vs. Clippers May 10 $43 +$85 +197%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $143 +$586 +408%
Warriors vs. Pistons Mar 21 $15 +$7 +49%
Hawks vs. Bucks Mar 05 $138 +$138 +100%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Mar 03 $97 −$97 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Mar 03 $66 −$66 -100%
Clippers vs. Warriors Mar 03 $45 +$43 +96%
Spurs vs. Raptors Feb 26 $175 +$71 +41%
Thunder vs. Raptors Feb 25 $81 +$103 +127%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $197 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $108 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $136 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $56 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $461 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $248 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $42 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $117 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $65 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $204 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $164 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $62 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $14 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $29 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $16 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $32 10h
New York Yankees vs. Athletics BUY New York Yankees 59¢ $164 22d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 45¢ $38 22d
New York Yankees vs. Athletics BUY New York Yankees 59¢ $72 22d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 100¢ $274 22d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 51¢ $153 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $457.62 · official $457.62 (match) · 88 history records