Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:29:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f0c…7047 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$291 (-13%) realized −$469 · open −$191
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate28%5W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$350
7 days−$469
14 days−$469
30 days−$469
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$526
crypto 32% −$247
other 24% +$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-42.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -36.5% -42.6% 28% 22% -33.8%
≤30d 18 -36.5% -42.6% 28% 22% -33.8%
≤90d 18 -36.5% -42.6% 28% 22% -33.8%
all 18 -36.5% -42.6% 28% 22% -33.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.6% 22% -33.8%
10% -48.1% 22% -40.2%
15% -53.1% 22% -45.9%
20% -57.7% 22% -51.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$70 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$297
Realized−$469
Unrealized−$191
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses5 / 13
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions5
Markets (closed)18 / 23
History coverage3d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Yes 23¢ 28¢ $88 $108 +$19 (+22%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Exact Score: Málaga CF 1 - 0 UD Almería? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 54¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Under 57¢ 0¢ $115 $0 −$115 (-100%)
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin FC Bayern Munchen 62¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Over 21¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Knicks 30¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Alexander Shevchenko 52¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Joventut vs. Valencia Jun 14 $162 +$127 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $103 +$58 +56%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $116 −$115 -99%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $101 −$16 -16%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $9 −$9 -99%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $101 +$85 +84%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $102 −$30 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $103 $0 +0%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $102 +$173 +170%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $105 −$20 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $102 −$83 -81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 23¢ $90 33m
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Málaga CF 1 - 0 UD Almería? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 1h
Joventut vs. Valencia SELL Valencia 89¢ $289 2h
Joventut vs. Valencia BUY Valencia 49¢ $162 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $116 4h
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin BUY FC Bayern Munchen 62¢ $101 7h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur SELL Alex de Minaur 46¢ $85 8h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 53¢ $101 8h
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel BUY Alexander Shevchenko 52¢ $9 10h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 20¢ $72 18h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 18h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 27¢ $102 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $103 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 19h
Scotland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $275 19h
Scotland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 20h
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline BUY Knicks 30¢ $102 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $84 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $105 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 21h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $102 23h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 34¢ $36 3d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $19 3d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $297.32 · official $297.33 (match) · 36 history records