Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:32:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f0d…c118 crypto 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$174 (-0%) realized −$174 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate10%7W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,649per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 99% −$12
economics 1% −$2
politics 0% $0
crypto 0% −$48
other 0% +$9
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-52.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 70 -47.4% -52.4% 10% 10% -10.0%
all 70 -47.4% -52.4% 10% 10% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.4% 10% -10.0%
10% -57.0% 10% -18.7%
15% -61.2% 9% -26.5%
20% -65.0% 7% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×4.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$174
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses7 / 63
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)70 / 81
History coverage77d
Avg bet$1,649
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 65¢ 65¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 41¢ 35¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 16 $1,114 −$2 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 16 $2,799 −$6 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $4,752 −$7 -0%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–J Jun 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) win the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $29 $0 -0%
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elect Jun 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Left Party (V) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish p Jun 16 $10 $0 -1%
Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Jun 16 $15 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Jun 16 $15 $0 -0%
Will Amanda Lind be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Jun 16 $25 $0 -0%
Will Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Jun 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 16 $25 $0 -0%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $51 +$22 +44%
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Girona FC end in a draw? Apr 10 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 31, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 31, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 01 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Apr 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Apr 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 1h
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 1h
Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 65¢ $1 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $999 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,000 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $999 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,000 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $999 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,000 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $999 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,000 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $999 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,000 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $999 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,000 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $999 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,000 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $999 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,000 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,000 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,000 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.80 · official $11.80 (match) · 494 history records