Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:36:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f0e…7397 sports 374 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$56,064 (-13%) realized −$56,186 · open +$122
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%182W / 212L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,111per market
Trades / day41.1pace
Fees−$3,204est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$2,320now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22,257
7 days−$30,040
14 days−$46,932
30 days−$47,330
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$26,562
other 31% −$15,846
crypto 0% −$641
tech 0% +$6
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -48.7% -53.6% 29% 26% -45.9%
≤30d 205 -8.8% -17.5% 44% 42% -31.7%
≤90d 394 -10.2% -18.8% 46% 43% -23.5%
all 394 -10.2% -18.8% 46% 43% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.8% 43% -23.5%
10% -26.6% 37% -30.8%
15% ← realistic here -33.6% 30% -37.5%
20% -40.2% 24% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$936) neutral
Persistence
early -12% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$537 vs −$782 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$2,320
Realized−$56,186
Unrealized+$122
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses182 / 212
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$3,204
Open positions6
Markets (closed)394 / 374
History coverage77d ⚠
Avg bet$1,111
Trades / day41.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 394 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $1,034 $1,097 +$63 (+6%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $375 $378 +$4 (+1%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $329 $349 +$20 (+6%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $283 $299 +$16 (+6%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? No 92¢ 98¢ $92 $98 +$6 (+7%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? No 85¢ 98¢ $85 $98 +$13 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 158 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Hornets Jun 26 $80 −$80 -100%
Hornets vs. Celtics Jun 26 $125 −$125 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 26 $3,629 −$3,629 -100%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines Jun 26 $697 −$697 -100%
Rockets vs. Grizzlies Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Spurs vs. Clippers Jun 26 $65 −$65 -100%
76ers vs. Rockets Jun 26 $1,129 −$1,129 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Jun 26 $2,440 −$2,440 -100%
Pistons vs. Thunder Jun 26 $808 −$808 -100%
Hawks vs. Nets Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Jun 26 $4,085 −$4,085 -100%
Clippers vs. Bucks Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Jun 26 $480 −$480 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Q Jun 26 $87 −$87 -100%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. Thunder Jun 26 $168 −$168 -100%
Pistons vs. Timberwolves Jun 26 $5,402 −$5,402 -100%
Celtics vs. Bucks Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-03-26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Heat vs. Pacers Jun 26 $995 −$995 -100%
Heat vs. Raptors Jun 26 $814 −$814 -100%
Knicks vs. Grizzlies Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Jun 26 $96 −$96 -100%
Timberwolves vs. 76ers Jun 26 $265 −$265 -100%
Bucks vs. Nets Jun 26 $2,689 −$2,690 -100%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Jun 26 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $294 +$383 +130%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $460 +$130 +28%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $1,134 +$1,152 +102%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $746 +$199 +27%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $149 −$139 -93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $224 +$107 +48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $273 +$224 +82%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $91 −$89 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $846 −$763 -90%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $215 −$28 -13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $922 +$858 +93%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $68 −$67 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3,854 +$821 +21%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3,105 −$1,543 -50%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $216 −$3 -2%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $129 −$32 -25%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $977 +$343 +35%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $7 +$3 +38%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $887 +$413 +47%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $9,126 −$9,126 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $1,402 +$384 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY No $0 34m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $268 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 78¢ $460 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $87 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 13¢ $25 2h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 51¢ $5 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 26¢ $139 4h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $13 4h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $0 4h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 4h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $63 4h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 4h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $45 4h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $1,002 4h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 69¢ $7 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $9 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $85 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $4 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $16 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $613 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $19 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No $10 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 51¢ $375 6h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 67¢ $224 25h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $91 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No $25 26h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 52¢ $73 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $484 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,319.50 · official $2,319.50 (match) · 3500 history records