Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:56:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f11…6181 sports 218 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%17W / 200L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$5
other 21% −$6
politics 18% −$3
economics 13% $0
crypto 8% −$1
culture 6% −$1
tech 3% $0
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -2.7% -12.0% 0% 0% -13.3%
≤90d 3 -1.6% -10.9% 33% 0% -11.5%
all 217 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses17 / 200
Open positions1
Markets (closed)217 / 218
History coverage169d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? No 94¢ 94¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $43 −$2 -5%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $37 $0 +1%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 02 $126 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $30 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 02 $246 $0 -0%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 02 $32 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 02 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 02 $171 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 02 $131 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Mar 02 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 02 $92 $0 +0%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 02 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 02 $83 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 02 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 02 $117 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 02 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 02 $38 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 02 $128 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 02 $153 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 02 $218 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $154 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 02 $79 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 02 $314 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $94 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 02 $309 $0 -0%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 02 $42 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 01 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 01 $77 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 01 $168 $0 -0%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 01 $34 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 01 $45 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 01 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 01 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 01 $41 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 01 $174 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 01 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 01 $89 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 01 $102 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $93 $0 -0%
Will Texas Tech win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Feb 28 $2 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 28 $4 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 27 $212 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 27 $75 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 27 $165 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 27 $39 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 94¢ $32 1h
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $41 14d
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $43 14d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 22d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $10 22d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $37 33d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $37 33d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 96¢ $31 107d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 96¢ $31 107d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $35 107d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 107d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 93¢ $3 107d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $30 107d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 93¢ $3 107d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 107d
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 95¢ $32 107d
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 96¢ $32 107d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $38 107d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $38 107d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $40 107d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $40 107d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 93¢ $43 107d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 93¢ $43 107d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $41 107d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 96¢ $41 107d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? SELL No 98¢ $3 107d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $33 107d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? BUY No 98¢ $3 107d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $33 107d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 96¢ $38 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.21 · official $32.21 (match) · 895 history records