Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:01:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f12…69c1 politics 112 markets active 2d ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$64 (-2%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate5%6W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$2
other 34% −$2
sports 12% −$61
tech 3% $0
world 2% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 103 +1.1% -8.5% 4% 1% -10.6%
all 111 -0.7% -10.1% 5% 2% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 2% -11.0%
10% -18.7% 1% -19.5%
15% -26.6% 1% -27.3%
20% -33.8% 1% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×5.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses6 / 105
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage110d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $90 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $45 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $43 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $76 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $66 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $55 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $72 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $43 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $57 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $74 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 05 $52 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? May 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $113 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $103 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $42 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $63 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $47 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $38 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $69 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $40 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $112 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $57 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $57 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $88 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $56 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 24 $58 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $65 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $64 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $58 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the televote for Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $61 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 19 $68 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $16 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $15 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $17 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $31 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $17 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $9 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $9 3d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 5d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 6d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $8 6d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $8 9d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 17d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 18d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $43 24d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 24d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 25d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 26d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $49 26d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $49 27d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 28d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 28d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $55 30d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $55 30d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 31d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 32d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 35d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 35d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $55 36d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $55 36d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 37d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 37d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 37d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 38d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $57 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.99 · official $9.99 (match) · 288 history records