Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:27:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f14…64d0 other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 346d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,150 (-3%) realized −$1,127 · open −$23
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%5W / 22L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,411per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$102est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$4,977now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,091
7 days+$13,911
14 days+$13,911
30 days+$13,911
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$2,170
sports 17% +$4,260
tech 7% −$2,145
politics 5% −$536
crypto 4% −$826
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +190.3% +162.7% 50% 50% +198.2%
≤30d 8 +190.3% +162.7% 50% 50% +198.2%
≤90d 8 +190.3% +162.7% 50% 50% +198.2%
all 27 +24.3% +12.4% 19% 19% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.4% 19% -13.3%
10% +1.7% 19% -21.6%
15% -8.1% 19% -29.1%
20% -17.1% 19% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +230% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$1,500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -23% → late +68% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,445 vs −$931 · ×3.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

346d coverage
Net worth$4,977
Realized−$1,127
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses5 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$102
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage346d
Avg bet$1,411
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $5,000 $4,977 −$23 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,019 −$67 -7%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 17 $1,023 −$1,023 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$95 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $243 −$237 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $205 −$71 -35%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,537 +$6,788 +442%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,420 +$3,295 +232%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $515 +$5,133 +997%
Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by December 31? Dec 30 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2025? Dec 30 $600 −$600 -100%
Will MrBeast hit 460 Million subscribers by December 31? Dec 28 $295 −$257 -87%
Will Trump Media buy more Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 28 $900 −$805 -89%
Epstein client list released in 2025? Dec 27 $3,061 −$2,421 -79%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Dec 23 $1,100 −$1,036 -94%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? Dec 23 $23 −$4 -18%
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? Dec 20 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 20 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Dec 20 $9,000 −$5,088 -56%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Dec 20 $3,455 −$2,836 -82%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 20 $200 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Joshua win via Decision? Dec 20 $1,000 +$1,914 +191%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 18 $1,647 −$1,109 -67%
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31? Dec 14 $3,500 −$1,306 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 11? Dec 10 $500 −$22 -4%
Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027? Dec 09 $1,500 −$232 -15%
Will Fartcoin hit $0.7 by December 31? Dec 09 $52 −$3 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $2,747 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $326 1h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 34¢ $952 1h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $1,019 19h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $2,049 22h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 20¢ $243 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Derrick Lewis 11¢ $134 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 16¢ $205 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $1,023 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $8,325 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1,537 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $4,715 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 23¢ $512 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $399 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $510 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 99¢ $2,809 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 81¢ $2,286 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 56¢ $553 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 10¢ $1 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 10¢ $257 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks $51 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks $103 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks $103 7d
Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by December 31? BUY Yes $200 169d
Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2025? BUY Yes $100 169d
Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2025? BUY Yes 12¢ $100 171d
Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2025? BUY Yes 12¢ $100 171d
Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2025? BUY Yes 12¢ $100 171d
Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2025? BUY Yes 11¢ $200 171d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,976.61 · official $4,976.61 (match) · 210 history records