Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:36:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f15…b9b6 crypto 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$18 (-14%) realized −$8 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%9W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 38% +$12
other 27% −$21
crypto 23% −$3
tech 5% −$6
world 4% −$5
sports 4% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -4.8% -13.9% 60% 40% -8.1%
≤90d 23 -15.9% -23.9% 39% 35% -23.4%
all 23 -15.9% -23.9% 39% 35% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 35% -23.4%
10% -31.2% 35% -30.7%
15% -37.8% 30% -37.4%
20% -43.9% 26% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses9 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage57d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 20¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-70%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 42¢ 18¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 6? Jun 07 $10 +$13 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 05 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 23? Apr 23 $6 +$13 +216%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 23? Apr 23 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 23 $3 +$1 +23%
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 20? Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 20? Apr 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 20? Apr 22 $10 +$10 +95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 58 million views on day 2 Apr 20 $5 +$4 +81%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 20 $2 +$7 +366%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 20 $1 +$1 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 10d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 6? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up $1 52d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 53d
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $6 53d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 23? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 53d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 23? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 54d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up $2 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down $1 56d
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 20? BUY Yes $3 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 56d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 20? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 56d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 56d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 58 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 54¢ $5 56d
Valorant: NRG vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega BUY NRG 36¢ $5 56d
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 20? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.04 · official $5.04 (match) · 43 history records