Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:29:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5F 0x5f17…0ca6 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$278 (+34%) realized +$281 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip
Net edge+38%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$89
other 5% +$176
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+43.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +58.4% +43.3% 62% 50% +25.9%
≤30d 16 +58.4% +43.3% 62% 50% +25.9%
≤90d 16 +58.4% +43.3% 62% 50% +25.9%
all 16 +58.4% +43.3% 62% 50% +25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +43.3% 50% +25.9%
10% +29.6% 50% +13.8%
15% +17.1% 44% +2.8%
20% +5.6% 38% -7.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +139% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$42 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized+$281
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage5d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Saudi Arabia 73¢ 72¢ $43 $42 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Saudi Arabia 87¢ 86¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Under 76¢ 74¢ $42 $40 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) Jun 21 $88 −$41 -46%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $74 +$120 +161%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $36 +$1 +4%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $38 +$4 +10%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $39 +$10 +26%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $40 +$17 +42%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $38 +$23 +60%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $37 +$56 +152%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $38 +$71 +188%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $37 +$176 +474%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $39 −$39 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $39 −$39 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $11 +$40 +365%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 87¢ $41 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 76¢ $42 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 73¢ $43 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 17¢ $37 7h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 19¢ $38 7h
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 77¢ $36 10h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 34¢ $38 10h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $40 20h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $37 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $39 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 42¢ $39 24h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 96¢ $36 24h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $37 24h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $38 24h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $38 24h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 79¢ $39 24h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 70¢ $40 24h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $40 24h
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) BUY Ecuador 25¢ $51 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $51 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $11 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.87 · official $122.87 (match) · 39 history records