Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:06:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f20…b2f4 other 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$308 (-17%) realized −$307 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%34W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$65
14 days+$20
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$26
weather 20% −$196
crypto 14% −$28
tech 12% −$191
sports 8% +$86
finance 7% −$46
world 3% +$22
politics 0% −$4
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +75.5% +58.8% 50% 50% +18.8%
≤30d 45 +58.2% +43.2% 40% 38% -18.1%
≤90d 46 +54.8% +40.0% 39% 37% -23.0%
all 86 +26.3% +14.3% 40% 37% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.3% 37% -26.3%
10% +3.3% 35% -33.3%
15% -6.6% 29% -39.8%
20% -15.8% 22% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$16 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$307
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses34 / 52
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions14
Markets (closed)86 / 100
History coverage153d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 24¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+50%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 61¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-69%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $52 −$6 -11%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $61 +$23 +38%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 +$10 +452%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $37 +$17 +45%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 +$3 +56%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 -92%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $16 +$7 +42%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$10 +941%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11 +$5 +46%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 +$2 +97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$3 +249%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -94%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$10 +452%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +309%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$13 +1238%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$9 +422%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +570%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $68 −$65 -95%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $21 +$43 +204%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -95%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $31 +$1 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -93%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -92%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Waymo launch in London by June 30 2026? Jun 08 $20 −$19 -97%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on Jun 07 $43 −$40 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $11 +$1 +11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 07 $27 −$25 -94%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $100 +$51 +51%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $53 −$50 -95%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31? Apr 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 17? Feb 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Feb 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February? Feb 05 $160 +$51 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 70¢ $47 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $16 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $26 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $26 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $61 14h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 21h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 39h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 39h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 39h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 39h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 14¢ $1 2d
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $26 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 21? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $16 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $11 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $11 5d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 5d
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 6d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 6d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 6d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 6d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.58 · official $32.59 (match) · 201 history records