Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:19:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f21…43bb crypto 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-2%) realized −$6 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate82%9W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$6
other 17% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.5% -8.2% 82% 45% -12.0%
≤30d 11 +1.5% -8.2% 82% 45% -12.0%
≤90d 11 +1.5% -8.2% 82% 45% -12.0%
all 11 +1.5% -8.2% 82% 45% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 45% -12.0%
10% -17.0% 36% -20.4%
15% -25.0% 27% -28.1%
20% -32.3% 9% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$20 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses9 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $47 $48 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.28 · official $48.28 (match) · 25 history records