Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:24:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f21…805e other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 208d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,972 (-17%) realized −$1,961 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%15W / 29L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$253per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$92est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$679now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$256
7 days−$73
14 days−$2,615
30 days−$1,686
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$1,505
sports 30% −$1,223
politics 11% −$5
world 8% +$982
economics 2% −$82
crypto 1% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.6% -10.1% 33% 33% -19.1%
≤30d 36 +6.5% -3.7% 36% 36% -15.3%
≤90d 38 +3.7% -6.2% 37% 34% -15.3%
all 44 -6.5% -15.4% 34% 32% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 32% -16.0%
10% -23.5% 25% -24.0%
15% -30.9% 20% -31.4%
20% -37.7% 18% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$205 vs −$167 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$679
Realized−$1,961
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses15 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$92
Open positions3
Markets (closed)44 / 47
History coverage208d
Avg bet$253
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $430 $428 −$2 (-0%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $185 $179 −$6 (-3%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $75 $71 −$4 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $102 +$373 +365%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $103 +$32 +32%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $233 −$228 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$50 -49%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$58 +57%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $98 +$435 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $87 +$12 +13%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $152 −$65 -43%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $118 −$115 -97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1,225 −$1,119 -91%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,156 −$1,134 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,219 −$47 -4%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1,016 +$285 +28%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,017 −$906 -89%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $205 −$23 -11%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $447 −$12 -3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $499 +$552 +111%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $303 −$213 -70%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $855 +$339 +40%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 03 $338 +$366 +108%
Will Kim Jin-tae win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 03 $150 +$168 +112%
Will Lee Jang-woo win the 2026 Daejeon mayoral election? Jun 02 $175 −$169 -96%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $102 −$11 -11%
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Jun 02 $54 −$52 -96%
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Choi Min-ho win the 2026 Sejong mayoral election? May 29 $132 −$129 -98%
Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial e May 29 $274 +$381 +139%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? May 28 $27 +$4 +16%
Will Yang Hyang-ja win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi May 27 $11 −$10 -97%
Will Huh Tae-jung win the 2026 Daejeon mayoral election? May 23 $12 −$9 -69%
Will Shin Yong-han win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial May 23 $66 +$59 +89%
Will Kim Young-hwan win the 2026 Chungcheongbuk Province gubernatorial May 20 $2 −$2 -97%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Apr 05 $5 $0 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 16 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Jan 08 $72 +$10 +14%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Dec 01 $189 −$82 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $77 36m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $54 36m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $353 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $476 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 18¢ $135 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $48 13h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 13h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 13h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 13h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 13h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 13h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $29 6d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 6d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $204 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $52 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 77¢ $159 7d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 7d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $533 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $98 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 87¢ $87 7d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $87 7d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $152 7d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $678.54 · official $678.60 (match) · 224 history records