Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:40:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5F 0x5f2f…756a world 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$493 (+10%) realized +$385 · open +$108
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate83%34W / 7L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$916now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$26
14 days+$24
30 days+$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$379
politics 20% +$37
other 7% +$3
tech 6% +$61
crypto 1% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +16.9% +5.8% 100% 67% +3.9%
≤30d 14 +6.0% -4.1% 79% 71% +1.7%
≤90d 41 +3.6% -6.2% 83% 61% -0.9%
all 41 +3.6% -6.2% 83% 61% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 61% -0.9%
10% -15.2% 27% -10.4%
15% -23.4% 12% -19.0%
20% -30.9% 5% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$48 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$916
Realized+$385
Unrealized+$108
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses34 / 7
Open positions15
Markets (closed)41 / 56
History coverage92d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 69¢ 99¢ $190 $272 +$82 (+43%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 71¢ 87¢ $71 $87 +$16 (+23%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 79¢ 90¢ $55 $63 +$8 (+15%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 83¢ 95¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 64¢ 60¢ $51 $48 −$3 (-5%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 65¢ 57¢ $52 $46 −$6 (-12%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $50 $40 −$9 (-19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $26 $35 +$10 (+38%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 69¢ 91¢ $21 $27 +$6 (+31%)
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $24 $20 −$4 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? Jun 19 $89 +$11 +12%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $37 +$13 +34%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $48 +$2 +5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $13 −$1 -5%
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $49 +$11 +24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $57 +$13 +24%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $48 +$12 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $50 +$10 +20%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 01 $50 −$26 -52%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $53 +$7 +13%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $50 +$10 +19%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $48 +$22 +45%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $52 +$8 +16%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun May 16 $50 +$14 +28%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 16 $107 +$80 +74%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $55 +$5 +10%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 12 $107 −$107 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 06 $334 +$64 +19%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 02 $50 +$10 +20%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 01 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? May 01 $294 +$65 +22%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 30 $50 +$6 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $48 +$2 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $145 +$75 +52%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Apr 26 $160 +$20 +12%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting? Apr 24 $211 +$12 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $49 +$20 +42%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $114 +$5 +4%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 22 $100 +$12 +12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 17 $413 +$26 +6%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 13 $145 +$62 +43%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $150 +$52 +34%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 08 $250 +$29 +11%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $100 +$19 +19%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $20 +$1 +3%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Apr 01 $194 +$17 +9%
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the March Mar 23 $50 +$3 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 1h
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $49 7h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $13 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 47¢ $13 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $13 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $25 10d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 69¢ $21 14d
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $27 15d
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $27 15d
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $17 15d
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? BUY Yes 89¢ $88 16d
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 16d
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 96¢ $48 17d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 79¢ $55 18d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 64¢ $52 18d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 76¢ $77 18d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 18d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 21¢ $24 18d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 74¢ $37 22d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 42¢ $24 29d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 42¢ $26 29d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $2 29d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $0 29d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $3 29d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $0 29d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $1 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $916.18 · official $916.20 (match) · 196 history records