Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:16:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5F 0x5f31…a362 sports 319 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$31 (+0%) realized +$40 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate66%210W / 107L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day35.7pace
Fees−$435est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days+$46
14 days−$1,200
30 days−$652
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$1,001
crypto 19% −$1,067
other 6% +$1,477
world 1% −$82
politics 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +2.5% -7.3% 76% 61% -5.3%
≤30d 317 -1.1% -10.5% 66% 53% -10.9%
≤90d 317 -1.1% -10.5% 66% 53% -10.9%
all 317 -1.1% -10.5% 66% 53% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 53% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 39% -19.4%
15% -26.9% 27% -27.2%
20% -34.1% 16% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +9% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$120 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$40
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses210 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$435
Open positions2
Markets (closed)317 / 319
History coverage27d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day35.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 317 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B 4ikibamboni 74¢ 62¢ $52 $43 −$9 (-17%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Flame Team 6¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $44 +$7 +16%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $39 +$5 +13%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $27 +$12 +44%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $28 −$28 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $14 +$14 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $13 −$12 -90%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $39 −$38 -98%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $15 +$5 +33%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $28 +$6 +21%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $37 −$36 -98%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $33 +$4 +11%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $29 +$4 +14%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $28 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $133 +$50 +38%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $128 +$5 +4%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 12 $70 +$58 +82%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $55 +$15 +27%
Dota 2: cincai team vs Pandawa Lima - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $54 −$54 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $43 +$11 +26%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) Jun 12 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $16 +$26 +158%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $12 +$4 +36%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $2 −$2 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +48%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $11 −$10 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$3 +36%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +13%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 10 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $33 −$33 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 10 $47 −$47 -100%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $41 −$41 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 10 $61 −$61 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $33 −$33 -100%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-01? Jun 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID - Game 3 Jun 10 $52 −$52 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $214 +$43 +20%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nande+4 - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-05? Jun 10 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 10 $67 −$67 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 10 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Aurora Gaming win DreamLeague Season 29? Jun 10 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY 4ikibamboni 74¢ $52 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group SELL Flame Team 5¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Flame Team 6¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Flame Team 6¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group SELL Flame Team 2¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Flame Team 9¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group SELL Power Rangers 94¢ $57 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 84¢ $51 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $51 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 86¢ $44 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $44 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 88¢ $39 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $39 4h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 68¢ $27 5h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 51¢ $28 6h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $28 6h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 50¢ $14 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 8h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner SELL InterActive Philippines 4¢ $1 8h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 38¢ $13 8h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 32¢ $39 11h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner SELL Carstensz 100¢ $20 12h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 74¢ $15 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $28 14h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Cloud Rising 17¢ $37 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Resilience 100¢ $37 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 90¢ $33 2d
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S SELL InterActive Philippines 100¢ $33 2d
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY InterActive Philippines 87¢ $29 2d
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Refuser 100¢ $29 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.95 · official $42.95 (match) · 1034 history records