Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:28:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5F 0x5f31…33f8 crypto 260 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-1%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%118W / 142L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days−$57
14 days−$57
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$57
crypto 33% −$69
culture 2% +$46
sports 1% −$29
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -6.9% -15.7% 62% 62% -12.3%
≤30d 8 -6.9% -15.7% 62% 62% -12.3%
≤90d 8 -6.9% -15.7% 62% 62% -12.3%
all 260 -4.2% -13.3% 45% 45% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 45% -12.9%
10% -21.6% 44% -21.3%
15% -29.2% 43% -28.9%
20% -36.1% 43% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses118 / 142
Open positions0
Markets (closed)260 / 260
History coverage144d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 260 Trades
no open positions (124 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $504 −$74 -15%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $401 +$42 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $376 +$45 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $201 +$35 +18%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 −$99 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 +$40 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Wildflower (Billie Eilish) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annua Feb 02 $17 +$83 +492%
Will Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) win Song of the Year at the 68th Feb 02 $13 −$13 -100%
Will DTMF (Bad Bunny) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY A Feb 01 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Feb 01 $4 +$4 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Feb 01 $4 +$4 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Feb 01 $4 +$4 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Feb 01 $4 +$4 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Feb 01 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 01 $4 +$3 +93%
Will Abracadabra (Lady Gaga) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual G Feb 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Feb 01 $4 +$4 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 01 $4 +$4 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Feb 01 $4 +$4 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Feb 01 $4 +$4 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Feb 01 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 01 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 01 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Feb 01 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Feb 01 $4 +$4 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 01 $4 +$4 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 01 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Feb 01 $3 +$3 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Feb 01 $3 +$3 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Feb 01 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 01 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 01 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 01 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Feb 01 $3 +$3 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Feb 01 $3 +$3 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Feb 01 $2 +$3 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Feb 01 $3 +$3 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Feb 01 $4 +$4 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Feb 01 $4 +$4 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Feb 01 $4 +$4 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Feb 01 $4 +$4 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Feb 01 $4 +$4 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 01 $4 +$4 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Feb 01 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Feb 01 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Feb 01 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Feb 01 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 01 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 61¢ $431 44m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $404 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $444 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $401 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 36h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $376 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $236 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 81¢ $201 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $100 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $60 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 4d
Will Wildflower (Billie Eilish) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annua BUY Yes 17¢ $17 139d
Will DTMF (Bad Bunny) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY A BUY Yes 16¢ $16 139d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 140d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 140d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 140d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 140d
Will Abracadabra (Lady Gaga) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual G BUY Yes 3¢ $8 140d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 140d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 140d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 140d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 140d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 140d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 140d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 140d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 140d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 140d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 140d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 140d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 452 history records