Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:58:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5F
0x5f32…b11d
world · 74 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$11 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$33
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses29 / 44
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage516d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 1 History 73 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$4
14 days−$3
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $32 −$3 -9%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $67 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $26 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $72 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $28 −$1 -3%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $3 $0 +10%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $72 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $86 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $16 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $34 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $45 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $35 −$3 -8%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $26 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $73 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee May 18 $7 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $34 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $75 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $68 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $34 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $67 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $31 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $110 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $131 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $81 −$1 -1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $35 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $2 $0 +6%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $97 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $38 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $123 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $7 $0 -1%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 12 $107 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 11 $3 $0 +3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 09 $3 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 08 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $38 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $43 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 34% −$7
other 22% −$1
politics 21% $0
sports 13% $0
economics 6% $0
crypto 3% +$4
finance 1% $0
tech 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $29 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $32 13h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 65¢ $10 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 65¢ $23 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $34 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $26 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $26 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $21 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $13 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $13 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $21 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $16 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $17 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $34 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 32¢ $27 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 33¢ $13 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 33¢ $16 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 4d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $38 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 56¢ $34 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 54¢ $33 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $13 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $13 9d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.4% -9.9% 12% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 25 -0.5% -9.9% 36% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 67 +0.0% -9.5% 39% 1% -9.6%
all 73 +5.0% -5.0% 40% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 4% -9.9%
10% -14.1% 3% -18.5%
15% -22.4% 3% -26.4%
20% -30.0% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.44 · official $33.44 (match) · 309 history records