Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:52:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f35…82a8 crypto 321 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$40 (-3%) realized −$44 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%120W / 192L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day32.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$299now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$57
14 days−$76
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$9
crypto 34% −$63
sports 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 170 -21.7% -29.2% 23% 23% -17.4%
≤30d 312 -16.7% -24.6% 38% 36% -15.4%
≤90d 312 -16.7% -24.6% 38% 36% -15.4%
all 312 -16.7% -24.6% 38% 36% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.6% 36% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -31.8% 33% -23.5%
15% -38.4% 29% -30.9%
20% -44.4% 22% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$299
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses120 / 192
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions9
Markets (closed)312 / 321
History coverage10d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day32.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 312 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+7%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 77¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 84¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 69¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 +$3 +32%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $5 +$20 +386%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 +$30 +589%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $3 +$34 +1110%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $3 +$18 +593%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 18 $3 +$8 +261%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 +$4 +386%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$45 +869%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $29 +$12 +41%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 +$18 +303%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? BUY Yes 3¢ $52 1h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $52 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $17 7h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 7h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 23h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 24h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $8 25h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 25h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $8 25h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 26h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 26h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 26h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 26h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 26h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 26h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 26h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 26h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 26h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 29h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 29h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 29h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 47h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 47h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $51 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $298.60 · official $298.74 (match) · 648 history records