Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:20:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f37…281b sports 300 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$28,244 (-19%) realized −$28,166 · open −$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate19%57W / 240L
Whale WR31%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$488per market
Trades / day84.9pace
Fees−$2,746est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$309now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 37d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$4,918
crypto 15% −$6,656
other 3% +$4,420
world 0% +$1,867
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +67.2% +51.3% 23% 23% +80.1%
≤30d 170 -20.8% -28.3% 18% 16% -20.8%
≤90d 297 -23.8% -31.1% 19% 18% -12.9%
all 297 -23.8% -31.1% 19% 18% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.1% 18% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -37.7% 18% -21.2%
15% -43.7% 18% -28.8%
20% -49.2% 17% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 31% (≥$662) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -29% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,810 vs −$451 · ×4.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$309
Realized−$28,166
Unrealized−$78
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses57 / 240
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Est. fees paid−$2,746
Open positions3
Markets (closed)297 / 300
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$488
Trades / day84.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 297 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $187 $154 −$33 (-18%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 3 Colombia? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $100 $61 −$39 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $396 −$396 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? Jun 18 $150 −$150 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $298 −$298 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $96 −$96 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $181 +$1,819 +1003%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $292 +$808 +276%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $390 +$410 +105%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $194 +$306 +158%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $100 +$300 +300%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $185 −$185 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $92 −$92 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $359 −$359 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $551 +$5,949 +1079%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $320 −$320 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $360 −$360 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $144 −$144 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $56 −$56 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $93 +$2,067 +2233%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $287 −$287 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $715 −$715 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $505 −$505 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $301 −$301 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $742 −$742 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $720 −$720 -100%
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2,210 +$8,850 +400%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $283 −$283 -100%
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $920 −$920 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 13 $270 −$270 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $45 −$45 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $107 −$107 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $122 +$366 +300%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $913 −$913 -100%
France vs. Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $1,175 −$1,175 -100%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $356 −$356 -100%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $729 −$729 -100%
Belarus vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $141 +$1,032 +732%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $602 −$602 -100%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $300 −$300 -100%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $696 −$696 -100%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $532 −$532 -100%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $425 −$425 -100%
Fiji vs. Vanuatu: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 20m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 2¢ $35 20m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 20m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 40m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 48m
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 2¢ $13 56m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 17¢ $192 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 4¢ $47 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 4¢ $28 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 4¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 2¢ $37 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 6¢ $15 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $309.25 · official $309.25 (match) · 3500 history records