Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:25:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f3c…ca16 crypto 73 markets active 0h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,121 (-18%) realized −$605 · open −$516
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%8W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,046
7 days+$1,046
14 days+$1,046
30 days+$1,046
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$1,300
crypto 31% +$1,782
sports 21% −$459
finance 11% −$704
weather 2% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-44.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -38.2% -44.1% 13% 13% +18.7%
≤30d 55 -38.2% -44.1% 13% 13% +18.7%
≤90d 55 -38.2% -44.1% 13% 13% +18.7%
all 59 -38.6% -44.5% 14% 14% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.5% 14% -12.6%
10% -49.8% 12% -21.0%
15% -54.6% 12% -28.6%
20% -59.1% 10% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -67% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$369 vs −$61 · ×6.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$220
Realized−$605
Unrealized−$516
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses8 / 51
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions14
Markets (closed)59 / 73
History coverage131d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 29? No 66¢ 100¢ $17 $27 +$9 (+52%)
Dota 2: BALU vs Ilbirs eSports - Game 1 Winner Ilbirs eSports 66¢ 99¢ $17 $26 +$9 (+51%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 28°C on June 29? No 67¢ 85¢ $17 $22 +$5 (+27%)
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs MASQ (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Prestige 63¢ 67¢ $17 $19 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 29? Yes 63¢ 66¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on June 29? No 65¢ 67¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 29? No 66¢ 58¢ $17 $15 −$2 (-12%)
Game 1: Both Teams Beat Roshan? No 86¢ 50¢ $17 $10 −$7 (-42%)
Game 2: Both Teams Beat Roshan? No 86¢ 50¢ $17 $10 −$7 (-42%)
Will Noam Chomsky be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $500 $8 −$492 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 29? No 62¢ 28¢ $17 $8 −$10 (-55%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 29? No 63¢ 26¢ $17 $7 −$10 (-59%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C or below on June 29? Yes 62¢ 20¢ $17 $6 −$12 (-68%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 29 $23 −$22 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 29 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 29 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5AM ET Jun 29 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 29 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 29 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 29 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $107 −$107 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? Jun 29 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 29 $111 +$422 +381%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 29 $106 +$319 +300%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 29 $218 −$218 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 29 $112 −$105 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 29 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 29 $213 +$690 +324%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 29 $106 +$1,172 +1101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 29 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 29 $86 +$273 +317%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 29 $420 −$189 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.43 · official $220.43 (match) · 142 history records