Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:07:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f3e…5337 weather 686 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$516 (-1%) realized −$711 · open +$195
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate56%360W / 280L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day35.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$6,555now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$308
7 days−$680
14 days−$194
30 days−$509
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 49% −$478
world 27% +$494
other 12% −$621
politics 10% −$281
finance 1% +$40
tech 0% +$29
sports 0% −$10
economics 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -19.5% -27.1% 50% 32% -21.6%
≤30d 402 -9.0% -17.6% 54% 40% -11.8%
≤90d 640 -7.0% -15.9% 56% 43% -12.9%
all 640 -7.0% -15.9% 56% 43% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 43% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 30% -21.2%
15% -31.3% 21% -28.8%
20% -38.0% 16% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$25 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$6,555
Realized−$711
Unrealized+$195
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses360 / 280
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions46
Markets (closed)640 / 686
History coverage59d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day35.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 46 History 640 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 81¢ 90¢ $477 $535 +$57 (+12%)
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $500 $504 +$4 (+1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? No 84¢ 84¢ $500 $503 +$3 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? No 97¢ 97¢ $484 $484 +$1 (+0%)
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? No 92¢ 94¢ $386 $394 +$9 (+2%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 93¢ $330 $370 +$40 (+12%)
5kt meteor strike in 2026? No 74¢ 74¢ $355 $353 −$3 (-1%)
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? No 86¢ 84¢ $358 $350 −$8 (-2%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 97¢ $272 $290 +$18 (+7%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 88¢ 95¢ $263 $285 +$22 (+8%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? Yes 94¢ 93¢ $235 $234 −$2 (-1%)
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $220 $219 −$1 (-1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 98¢ $197 $215 +$18 (+9%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 54¢ 50¢ $161 $148 −$13 (-8%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 77¢ 86¢ $130 $146 +$16 (+12%)
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in June? No 94¢ 96¢ $138 $143 +$4 (+3%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 78¢ 99¢ $78 $99 +$21 (+27%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 98¢ $94 $98 +$4 (+4%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 75¢ 96¢ $75 $96 +$21 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 20? No 96¢ 94¢ $96 $94 −$2 (-2%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 28, 2026? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $92 $92 +$0 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 22, 2026? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $91 $91 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in June 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $78 $79 +$1 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 54¢ 74¢ $54 $74 +$20 (+38%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 56¢ 80¢ $50 $72 +$22 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19? Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $501 +$19 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $273 +$24 +9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 20 $46 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $37 +$13 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $60 +$90 +151%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $35 +$65 +186%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? Jun 19 $58 −$58 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $32 +$18 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $40 +$110 +278%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $47 +$53 +112%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 18, 2026? Jun 18 $50 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 17? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $297 −$197 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $93 +$7 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $79 +$21 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $91 +$9 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $56 +$44 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $84 +$16 +20%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$19 +18%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $91 +$9 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $66 +$34 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $78 +$22 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $75 +$25 +33%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $502 +$73 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? Jun 16 $100 +$5 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $103 +$34 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$50 +100%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $567 −$567 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $200 +$9 +4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $37 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $96 −$20 -21%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $45 +$5 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 20? BUY No 52¢ $0 16m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 20? BUY No 52¢ $2 16m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 20? BUY No 52¢ $1 26m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 20? BUY No 52¢ $17 28m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 39m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 97¢ $484 40m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 45m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 20? BUY No 52¢ $3 52m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 20? BUY No 52¢ $5 57m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 71¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 87¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 71¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 87¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 71¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 20? BUY No 52¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $43 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 20? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 87¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 20? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 20? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 71¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 20? BUY No 52¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 65¢ $9 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 50¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 65¢ $10 2h
5kt meteor strike in 2026? BUY No 73¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 65¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 64¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,555.03 · official $6,543.08 (match) · 2698 history records