Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:21:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5F 0x5f3f…a267 sports 35 markets active 7h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$67 (+1%) realized +$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%17W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$547
7 days−$435
14 days−$435
30 days−$435
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$476
other 29% +$583
tech 1% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-36.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -33.6% -40.0% 47% 44% -21.2%
≤30d 32 -33.6% -40.0% 47% 44% -21.2%
≤90d 35 -29.3% -36.0% 49% 46% -8.6%
all 35 -29.3% -36.0% 49% 46% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.0% 46% -8.6%
10% -42.1% 34% -17.3%
15% -47.7% 20% -25.3%
20% -52.8% 6% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -68% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$57 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses17 / 18
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage60d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $622 +$242 +39%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $256 +$58 +23%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1,000 −$456 -46%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $30 +$7 +24%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $53 +$16 +31%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $97 −$97 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $53 +$57 +109%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $40 −$40 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$12 +40%
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? Jun 18 $3 +$1 +47%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $79 +$21 +26%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $14 +$6 +41%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $190 +$16 +8%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $50 +$17 +34%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $90 +$10 +11%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $201 +$37 +18%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $15 +$7 +48%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $160 +$18 +11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$21 -41%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 27 $60 −$58 -97%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 24? Apr 24 $281 +$364 +130%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? Apr 24 $939 +$178 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 84¢ $324 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 97¢ $40 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 97¢ $87 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 97¢ $8 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 97¢ $15 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 97¢ $21 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 97¢ $21 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 97¢ $10 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 97¢ $1 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 97¢ $5 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 97¢ $107 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $2 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $13 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $8 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $19 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $39 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $71 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 62¢ $146 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 37¢ $300 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 45¢ $8 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 79¢ $256 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 58¢ $10 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 58¢ $18 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 58¢ $180 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 58¢ $1 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 58¢ $8 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 58¢ $3 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 58¢ $1 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 58¢ $16 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 80¢ $1,000 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 137 history records