Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:44:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f3f…8334 world 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+2%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate45%25W / 30L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$5
other 25% +$24
politics 6% −$2
sports 5% −$2
crypto 4% −$1
tech 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.7% -8.0% 44% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 19 +1.1% -8.5% 42% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 19 +1.1% -8.5% 42% 0% -8.9%
all 55 +29.1% +16.8% 45% 4% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.8% 4% -7.6%
10% +5.6% 4% -16.5%
15% -4.6% 4% -24.5%
20% -13.9% 2% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.05 per $1 lost it wins $4.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses25 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage471d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 24 $2 $0 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $89 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $15 +$1 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $41 +$1 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $46 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $43 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $1 $0 +10%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $74 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $46 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $118 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $12 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $78 +$2 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $38 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $38 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $3 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will Alexander Albon finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Dec 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 17 $5 $0 -2%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Jun 21 $3 −$2 -65%
Will Italy finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 19 $1 +$24 +1654%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 14 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 14 $20 $0 -1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 12 $11 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 11 $2 −$1 -23%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 11 $9 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 09 $4 −$1 -18%
Will Sali Berisha be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 May 08 $12 $0 +2%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? May 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will the next Pope be from North America? May 08 $12 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 06 $12 $0 -1%
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? May 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? Apr 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 29 $12 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $2000 in April? Apr 29 $12 $0 -2%
Will Bloc Québécois win the second most seats in the next Canadian ele Apr 29 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win by 50 or more seats? Apr 28 $8 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $47 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $1 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes $1 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes $1 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes $1 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $47 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $47 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $42 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $42 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 94¢ $42 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 91¢ $41 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $5 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $40 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $40 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $45 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $45 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $41 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $41 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.71 · official $46.71 (match) · 192 history records