Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T08:00:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5F
0x5f45…a77a
sports · 149 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$67,587 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$53,374 · open +$13,963
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$77,048
Realized+$53,374
Unrealized+$13,963
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses71 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$6,376
Open positions16
Markets (closed)136 / 149
Avg bet$4,215
Trades / day126.7
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 16 History 136 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26,308
7 days+$317
14 days−$2,066
30 days+$53,374
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 20¢ 34¢ $10,378 $17,082 +$6,703 (+65%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 62¢ 74¢ $8,312 $9,775 +$1,464 (+18%)
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? No 57¢ 93¢ $4,812 $7,892 +$3,080 (+64%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 59¢ 60¢ $7,291 $7,345 +$54 (+1%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 46¢ 42¢ $5,952 $5,540 −$412 (-7%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 88¢ 99¢ $4,400 $4,938 +$538 (+12%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $4,588 $4,614 +$27 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 55¢ 62¢ $3,025 $3,437 +$412 (+14%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Yes 62¢ 88¢ $2,170 $3,080 +$910 (+42%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 25¢ 28¢ $2,222 $2,532 +$310 (+14%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? No 36¢ 42¢ $2,053 $2,409 +$357 (+17%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 40¢ 40¢ $2,261 $2,289 +$28 (+1%)
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 81¢ 94¢ $1,875 $2,165 +$289 (+15%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? No 45¢ 56¢ $1,610 $2,021 +$411 (+26%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? No 41¢ 36¢ $2,050 $1,775 −$275 (-13%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 50¢ 89¢ $86 $153 +$67 (+79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $9,616 +$5,384 +56%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 10? Jun 11 $680 +$320 +47%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 11 $607 +$544 +90%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $630 −$630 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 10 $2,719 +$1,279 +47%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 10 $4,537 +$5,963 +131%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $10,150 +$7,092 +70%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $10,800 +$9,200 +85%
Map Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 10 $2,845 −$2,845 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10,150 −$10,150 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 07 $6,954 −$1,174 -17%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $14,666 −$14,666 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $353 −$353 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $8,321 +$5,807 +70%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $1,422 −$1,422 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $38,898 +$15,856 +41%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,042 −$321 -10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $4,808 +$848 +18%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe S Jun 01 $593 +$412 +70%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,326 +$174 +13%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $103 +$118 +115%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 31 $866 +$391 +45%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 31 $2,318 −$2,002 -86%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $5,055 −$5,055 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 3 Winner May 30 $960 −$27 -3%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP - Map 2 Winner May 30 $279 −$279 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Pl May 30 $834 +$475 +57%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 30 $570 +$430 +75%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner May 30 $1,061 +$687 +65%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $5,468 +$654 +12%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner May 30 $2,066 +$987 +48%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 30 $2,365 +$2,207 +93%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 30 $7,369 −$3,454 -47%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $11,662 +$8,884 +76%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $8,596 +$4,886 +57%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $7,952 −$5,885 -74%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $3,213 −$3,213 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $9,116 −$4,797 -53%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $13,913 −$13,913 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $10,825 −$4,480 -41%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $1,742 −$1,742 -100%
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $1,851 −$52 -3%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $2,299 −$2,299 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $2,758 −$998 -36%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $3,066 −$2,357 -77%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $2,641 −$2,641 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $7,651 +$354 +5%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers - Gam May 28 $11 +$12 +111%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 28 $1,300 +$700 +54%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $11,311 +$1,502 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 59% −$5,736
world 25% +$10,339
finance 9% +$66,026
other 4% +$10,199
crypto 3% −$13,492
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 40¢ $5 1m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 40¢ $2 1m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 40¢ $3 1m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 40¢ $4 2m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 40¢ $7 3m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 40¢ $43 3m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 40¢ $8 3m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 40¢ $13 3m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 40¢ $3 3m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 40¢ $67 4m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 40¢ $140 4m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 40¢ $13 4m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 40¢ $33 5m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 40¢ $17 6m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 40¢ $2 6m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 40¢ $7 6m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 40¢ $600 6m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 40¢ $3 6m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 40¢ $2 6m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 40¢ $3 6m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 40¢ $2 7m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 40¢ $7 7m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 40¢ $2 8m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 40¢ $3 8m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 40¢ $1 8m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 40¢ $33 10m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 40¢ $1 11m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 40¢ $100 11m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 40¢ $333 11m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 40¢ $17 11m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +9.1% -1.3% 58% 58% -9.1%
≤30d 136 +25.4% +13.5% 52% 51% -1.3%
≤90d 136 +25.4% +13.5% 52% 51% -1.3%
all 136 +25.4% +13.5% 52% 51% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover126.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.5% 51% -1.3%
10% +2.6% 44% -10.8%
15% ← realistic here -7.3% 43% -19.4%
20% -16.4% 36% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77,048.31 · official $76,978.78 (match) · 3500 history records