Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:39:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f46…0f72 world 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 463d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate45%22W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% $0
other 20% −$2
politics 6% −$1
finance 4% $0
economics 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.8% -12.0% 20% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 17 -0.5% -10.0% 47% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 17 -0.5% -10.0% 47% 0% -9.5%
all 49 -4.5% -13.6% 45% 2% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 2% -9.9%
10% -21.9% 0% -18.5%
15% -29.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -36.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

463d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses22 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage463d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $73 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $4 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $38 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $5 $0 -10%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $107 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $36 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $36 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $17 $0 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $22 +$1 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $9 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $35 $0 +1%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Dec 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 05 $9 $0 -1%
Will Kim Moon-soo win between 25% and 30% of the vote in the South Kor Jun 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? Jun 02 $8 +$1 +9%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 25 $15 $0 +2%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 22 $12 −$4 -31%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 22 $6 $0 +4%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 19 $4 −$1 -38%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 14 $6 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw May 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 11 $2 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 11 $7 $0 +1%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 10 $3 $0 -14%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 09 $11 +$1 +11%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? May 08 $12 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? May 07 $12 $0 +4%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Alberta in the next May 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 08 $2 −$1 -42%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Apr 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 31 $1 $0 -23%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 28 $12 $0 -0%
2025 March hottest on record? Mar 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $13 $0 +3%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 15 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $35 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $35 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $3 46h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $38 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $38 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $4 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $5 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $5 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $13 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $22 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $36 17d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $36 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $35 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $35 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $36 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $36 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $3 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $33 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $5 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $31 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $35 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 20d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.32 · official $38.32 (match) · 133 history records