Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5F 0x5f48…ba84 sports 1230 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d only
✗ bot/MM pace (114 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$977 (+0%) realized +$963 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate99%1209W / 8L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day113.8pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$4,939now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$137
7 days+$847
14 days+$1,336
30 days+$1,481
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,543
other 0% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (114 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 389 +1.3% -8.4% 99% 3% -8.8%
≤30d 1217 +0.8% -8.8% 99% 2% -8.9%
≤90d 1217 +0.8% -8.8% 99% 2% -8.9%
all 1217 +0.8% -8.8% 99% 2% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover113.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 2% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 1% -17.6%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$44 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.18 per $1 lost it wins $5.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$4,939
Realized+$963
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1209 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions14
Markets (closed)1217 / 1230
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$174
Trades / day113.8
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 1217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs FOKUS 100¢ 100¢ $749 $750 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner FOKUS 100¢ 100¢ $749 $750 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs Rooster 100¢ 100¢ $749 $750 +$0 (+0%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 100¢ 100¢ $642 $642 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse - Map 1 Winner FOKUS 100¢ 100¢ $597 $597 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Walczaki 98¢ 100¢ $556 $565 +$9 (+2%)
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs 4ikibamboni 100¢ 100¢ $330 $330 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Prestige - Map 2 Winner Prestige 99¢ 100¢ $186 $188 +$2 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Prestige (BO3) - United21 Group D Prestige 99¢ 100¢ $123 $124 +$1 (+1%)
Map Handicap: ex-RUBY (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) Ursa 100¢ 100¢ $98 $98 −$0 (-0%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 100¢ 100¢ $64 $64 +$0 (+0%)
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug - Game 2 Winner the bug 100¢ 99¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Prestige - Map 1 Winner Prestige 100¢ 100¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Daystar vs Fury (BO1) - Asia Pacific League Asia - Stage 1 Group Stage Daystar 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $102 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $288 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: Team Orchid vs Weibo Gaming (BO1) - Asia Pacific Le Jun 18 $1 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs 4M (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri Jun 18 $26 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Chivas Esports (+1.5) Jun 18 $65 $0 +0%
Valorant: Chivas Esports vs LYON - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $408 $0 +0%
Valorant: Chivas Esports vs LYON (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regu Jun 18 $65 $0 +0%
Valorant: Chivas Esports vs LYON - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $437 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) Jun 18 $116 +$1 +1%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $749 +$1 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $12 $0 +0%
Valorant: STREAMER ARENA vs FUSION - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $237 $0 +0%
Valorant: STREAMER ARENA vs FUSION (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Re Jun 18 $375 $0 +0%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr Jun 18 $749 +$1 +0%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $749 +$1 +0%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $274 $0 +0%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
Valorant: STREAMER ARENA vs FUSION - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $187 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $105 $0 +0%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 18 $749 +$1 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Jun 18 $500 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $749 +$1 +0%
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta Jun 18 $749 +$1 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: PENSIONERS vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA European Final Jun 18 $302 +$1 +0%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $749 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: SNITKO Esports vs unknowns - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $116 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: SNITKO Esports vs unknowns (BO3) - ESEA European Final Jun 17 $124 $0 +0%
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $749 +$1 +0%
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $192 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $500 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division Jun 17 $500 $0 +0%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $749 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: SNITKO Esports vs unknowns - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $481 +$19 +4%
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $357 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $520 +$1 +0%
Map Handicap: ILWL (-1.5) vs KOLESIE (+1.5) Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $499 +$1 +0%
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $179 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $749 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $749 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 17 $245 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $749 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: PENSIONERS vs BakS eSports - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $476 +$24 +5%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $288 $0 +0%
Valorant: Fancy United vs Sharper Esport - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $87 $0 +0%
Valorant: Fancy United vs Sharper Esport (BO3) - VCL Southeast Asia: P Jun 17 $500 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $749 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 100¢ $250 15m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 95¢ $28 20m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 95¢ $16 20m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 95¢ $17 21m
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY 4ikibamboni 100¢ $39 23m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner BUY Walczaki 98¢ $244 23m
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY 4ikibamboni 100¢ $160 29m
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY 4ikibamboni 100¢ $61 31m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 100¢ $4 34m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $10 35m
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY 4ikibamboni 100¢ $41 38m
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY 4ikibamboni 100¢ $15 40m
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 100¢ $749 40m
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY 4ikibamboni 100¢ $15 40m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $13 56m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $40 57m
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl BUY FOKUS 100¢ $282 57m
Rainbow Six Siege: Daystar vs Fury (BO1) - Asia Pacific League Asia - BUY Daystar 99¢ $10 59m
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner BUY FOKUS 100¢ $61 1h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner BUY FOKUS 100¢ $688 1h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl BUY FOKUS 100¢ $468 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 100¢ $36 1h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Prestige - Map 1 Winner BUY Prestige 100¢ $22 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 100¢ $27 1h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Prestige - Map 2 Winner BUY Prestige 100¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Prestige - Map 2 Winner BUY Prestige 99¢ $45 1h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Prestige (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY Prestige 99¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Prestige - Map 2 Winner BUY Prestige 99¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Prestige - Map 2 Winner BUY Prestige 99¢ $26 1h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Prestige - Map 2 Winner BUY Prestige 99¢ $50 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,939.29 · official $4,939.29 (match) · 3500 history records