Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:21:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5F 0x5f49…902e other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 204d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$76 (+6%) realized +$136 · open −$60
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$454now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 204d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$211
other 44% −$188
economics 8% +$6
culture 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +110.8% +90.7% 100% 100% +57.9%
≤30d 3 +110.8% +90.7% 100% 100% +57.9%
≤90d 3 +110.8% +90.7% 100% 100% +57.9%
all 7 +9.9% -0.6% 57% 57% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.6% 57% -1.6%
10% -10.1% 57% -11.0%
15% -18.8% 57% -19.6%
20% -26.7% 43% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +74% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$94 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$454
Realized+$136
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions5
Markets (closed)7 / 12
History coverage204d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 32¢ $200 $148 −$52 (-26%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 76¢ 80¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 56¢ 52¢ $112 $103 −$9 (-8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 21¢ $53 $62 +$9 (+17%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 22¢ $49 $36 −$13 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? Jun 28 $35 +$65 +184%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $103 +$97 +93%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $302 +$167 +55%
Will there be a safety car during the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? Dec 07 $149 −$149 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? Dec 07 $60 +$22 +37%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 07 $113 −$113 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $57 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $203 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $57 2h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes 35¢ $23 37h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes 35¢ $12 37h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $52 40h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $52 40h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $54 2d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 3d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $470 3d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $60 3d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $66 3d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $176 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 76¢ $101 4d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 4d
Will there be a safety car during the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? SELL Yes $0 204d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? SELL Yes 100¢ $82 204d
Will there be a safety car during the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? BUY Yes 50¢ $22 204d
Will there be a safety car during the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 204d
Will there be a safety car during the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 204d
Will there be a safety car during the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 204d
Will there be a safety car during the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 204d
Will there be a safety car during the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 204d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 24¢ $34 204d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? BUY Yes 73¢ $60 204d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes 23¢ $79 204d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY Yes $20 204d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $454.43 · official $459.28 · 31 history records