Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:10:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f4a…9d33 sports 353 markets active 2h ago coverage 651d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$85 (-0%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%25W / 327L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$24
14 days−$35
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 35% −$18
other 28% −$18
politics 24% −$21
economics 4% −$4
crypto 3% −$27
world 2% −$7
tech 2% −$7
culture 1% −$1
finance 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -1.0% -10.5% 10% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 84 -1.0% -10.4% 6% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 89 -1.0% -10.4% 6% 0% -10.3%
all 352 -0.6% -10.1% 7% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

651d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses25 / 327
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)352 / 353
History coverage651d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 352 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $114 −$2 -2%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $91 −$2 -2%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $122 −$3 -2%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $189 −$1 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $263 −$1 -0%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 15 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will Algeria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $61 −$3 -5%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $169 −$1 -1%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $124 −$3 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $79 $0 -1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $122 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $59 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $61 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $142 −$3 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $213 −$1 -1%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $64 −$2 -3%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $132 −$1 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $61 +$3 +4%
Will Brazil score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $63 −$2 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 10 $116 −$3 -3%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $75 −$1 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 09 $82 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $73 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 08 $47 $0 -1%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $46 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 08 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $39 $0 -0%
Will FUT Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 07 $62 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $43 $0 -1%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 06 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $111 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $49 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $51 $0 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $52 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee Jun 04 $42 $0 -1%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 02 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $48 −$1 -3%
Will Ro Khanna be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 02 $46 −$4 -9%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $56 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $183 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $108 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $42 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $103 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $152 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Ottawa Senators be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion BUY No 98¢ $30 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $52 2h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 5h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $19 6h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 89¢ $45 6h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $46 12h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $44 13h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 92¢ $45 18h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 95¢ $54 18h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $55 24h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $50 25h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $51 30h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $52 30h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $52 35h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $12 36h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $12 44h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $59 44h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $61 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 96¢ $38 2d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 96¢ $38 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $50 2d
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $50 2d
Will Algeria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $58 2d
Will Algeria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $61 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $60 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $60 3d
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 93¢ $56 3d
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $58 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.68 · official $29.68 (match) · 1338 history records