Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:35:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5F
0x5f4a…f61b
weather · 150 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$129 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$112 · open −$17
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$50
Realized−$112
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses6 / 143
Open positions1
Markets (closed)149 / 150
Avg bet$16
Trades / day341.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 149 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$112
7 days−$112
14 days−$112
30 days−$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 50¢ 83¢ $25 $42 +$17 (+66%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 17¢ $25 $8 −$17 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $11 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 12 $42 −$3 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $15 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $10 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $25 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $37 −$3 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $37 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 12 $68 −$6 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 −$1 -6%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $37 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $60 −$4 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $38 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $28 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $27 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $22 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 11 $44 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $31 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? Jun 11 $8 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $7 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $31 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $52 −$4 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $0 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $33 −$3 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 89% −$112
other 11% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 6m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 6m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 13¢ $9 24m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 14¢ $10 25m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL No 31¢ $14 46m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 32¢ $15 49m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 83¢ $4 56m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 84¢ $4 58m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? SELL No 59¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 65¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 83¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 83¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 86¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 86¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL No 78¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 77¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? SELL Yes 38¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju SELL Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June SELL Yes 50¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 51¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 51¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? SELL Yes 39¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY Yes 39¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL No 42¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 149 -7.1% -15.9% 4% 0% -14.3%
≤30d 149 -7.1% -15.9% 4% 0% -14.3%
≤90d 149 -7.1% -15.9% 4% 0% -14.3%
all 149 -7.1% -15.9% 4% 0% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover341.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 0% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 0% -22.5%
15% -31.3% 0% -30.0%
20% -38.0% 0% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.00 · official $50.00 (match) · 603 history records