Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:38:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f53…98ff crypto 898 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 119d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$987 (-5%) realized −$987 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate53%476W / 422L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,066
world 0% +$5
finance 0% $0
politics 0% −$3
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -16.2% -24.1% 42% 12% -10.3%
≤30d 28 -18.1% -25.9% 39% 14% -11.1%
≤90d 85 -18.1% -25.9% 41% 26% -13.0%
all 898 -7.2% -16.0% 53% 36% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 36% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 25% -22.9%
15% -31.4% 17% -30.4%
20% -38.1% 12% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$987
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses476 / 422
Open positions0
Markets (closed)898 / 898
History coverage120d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 898 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $60 −$6 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $77 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $112 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $100 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $61 +$15 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $72 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$5 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$15 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 09 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 09 $36 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 09 $18 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 27 $10 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 27 $2 $0 +11%
Will Kim Doo-kyum win the 2026 Ulsan mayoral election? May 27 $5 −$3 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 27 $4 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 12 $2 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 12 $6 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 12 $9 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 12 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 12 $16 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 11 $23 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 11 $8 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 11 $40 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 11 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 11 $13 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 11 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 11 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 11 $4 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 10 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 10 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 10 $4 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 10 $13 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 10 $7 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 10 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 10 $14 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $63 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $53 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $50 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $45 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $51 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $11 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $52 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $43 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $53 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records