Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:47:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f55…2c62 other 222 markets active 1h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%26W / 195L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 24% −$5
other 23% −$4
sports 22% −$4
crypto 10% −$1
economics 9% −$1
culture 6% −$1
world 4% −$1
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 3 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 0% -10.0%
all 221 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses26 / 195
Open positions1
Markets (closed)221 / 222
History coverage172d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 221 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? No 98¢ 98¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 10 $41 −$1 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 27 $36 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 21 $34 $0 -1%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $33 $0 -1%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 20 $149 $0 -0%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 20 $46 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 19 $160 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 19 $72 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 19 $71 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 18 $79 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 18 $81 −$1 -1%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 18 $199 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 17 $154 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 17 $150 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 16 $94 $0 +0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 16 $120 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $248 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Mar 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 14 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 13 $43 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 11 $39 $0 -1%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 11 $86 −$1 -1%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 11 $45 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 10 $94 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Mar 10 $44 −$2 -4%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 09 $41 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 09 $109 −$4 -3%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 08 $53 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 08 $143 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 07 $95 +$2 +2%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 07 $140 +$1 +0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 06 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 05 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 03 $46 $0 -1%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 20 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 20 $159 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 20 $47 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 20 $79 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 20 $92 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 20 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 20 $44 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $44 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 95¢ $40 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $41 10d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 97¢ $36 24d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 97¢ $36 24d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $42 36d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $42 36d
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 96¢ $34 91d
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 96¢ $34 91d
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 96¢ $32 91d
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 98¢ $33 92d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $40 92d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $41 92d
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 98¢ $46 92d
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 98¢ $46 93d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $33 93d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $33 93d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $33 93d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $33 93d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $46 93d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $46 94d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? SELL No 98¢ $39 94d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? BUY No 98¢ $39 94d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $37 94d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $37 94d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $43 94d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 95d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $43 95d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $43 95d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? SELL No 96¢ $40 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.23 · official $44.23 (match) · 766 history records