Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:08:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5F
0x5f56…348a
sports · 362 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$22,167 -49%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$30,149 · open −$722
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10,553
Realized−$30,149
Unrealized−$722
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses160 / 480
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$426
Open positions111
Markets (closed)640 / 362
History coverage5d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day594.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 111 History 640 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32,883
7 days−$30,149
14 days−$30,149
30 days−$30,149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? No 83¢ 81¢ $2,731 $2,674 −$58 (-2%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 38¢ $620 $750 +$130 (+21%)
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $653 $658 +$5 (+1%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 80¢ $445 $448 +$3 (+1%)
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 94¢ 96¢ $355 $361 +$6 (+2%)
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting? No 85¢ 92¢ $272 $292 +$21 (+8%)
Will the South African Reserve Bank hike by 25 bps at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 52¢ 65¢ $204 $256 +$52 (+25%)
Will Japan be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? No 83¢ 84¢ $228 $231 +$3 (+1%)
Will Ecuador reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 83¢ $196 $205 +$9 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage illwill 39¢ 100¢ $77 $194 +$118 (+153%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 94¢ $181 $187 +$6 (+3%)
Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in June? No 76¢ 59¢ $223 $174 −$50 (-22%)
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Clutchain 64¢ 100¢ $106 $166 +$60 (+57%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 79¢ $153 $165 +$12 (+8%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 75¢ 76¢ $160 $162 +$2 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs Clutchain - Map 1 Winner Clutchain 62¢ 100¢ $99 $160 +$61 (+62%)
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 68¢ $126 $141 +$15 (+12%)
Will Tommy Fleetwood finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Yes 53¢ 94¢ $78 $139 +$61 (+78%)
Will Tunisia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 98¢ $130 $137 +$6 (+5%)
Will Paraguay reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 96¢ $118 $129 +$11 (+9%)
Will the South African Reserve Bank cut by 25 bps at the July 2026 meeting? No 94¢ 96¢ $110 $113 +$3 (+3%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 64¢ $107 $110 +$4 (+3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Will Tunisia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 21¢ 32¢ $71 $109 +$37 (+52%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 19¢ 13¢ $136 $95 −$41 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 14 $147 −$146 -100%
Will Club The Strongest win on 2026-05-03? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Cerezo Ōsaka vs. FC Tōkyō end in a draw? Jun 14 $30 −$14 -45%
Will CD Limache win on 2026-05-24? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SE Palmeiras vs. Santos FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 +$10 +123%
Will Chicago Fire FC vs. FC Cincinnati end in a draw? Jun 14 $510 −$516 -101%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Tigres de la UANL end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$49 +1763%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? Jun 14 $3 +$18 +562%
Will Kashima Antlers vs. FC Mito Holly Hock end in a draw? Jun 14 $0 +$5 +3719%
Will CF Montréal vs. Orlando City SC end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will FC Universitario vs. Club Aurora end in a draw? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Liaoning Tieren FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Valorant: NRG Academy vs Division One (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Jun 14 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-16? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Al Okhdood SC win on 2026-05-12? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Carabobo FC win on 2026-05-21? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? Jun 14 $208 +$135 +65%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hibernian FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Pumas de la UNAM vs. CF América end in a draw? Jun 14 $109 −$106 -98%
Will Jeju SK FC win on 2026-05-05? Jun 14 $23 −$23 -101%
Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-06-06? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-02? Jun 14 $12 +$11 +93%
Will KFUM-Kameratene Oslo vs. Tromsø IL end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$7 +317%
Will Kasımpaşa SK vs. Kocaelispor end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds end in a draw? Jun 14 $12 −$3 -24%
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? Jun 14 $59 −$66 -111%
Will Real Valladolid CF vs. RC Deportivo La Coruña end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 14 $61 −$61 -100%
Will "The Balusters" win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards? Jun 14 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Racing Louisville FC vs. Denver Summit FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tromsø IL win on 2026-05-29? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will SC Internacional win on 2026-05-03? Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Gamba Ōsaka end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-05-10? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Exeter City FC win on 2026-05-02? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Sandefjord Fotball vs. Aalesunds FK end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$5 -90%
Will "Office Romance" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will AD Cali win on 2026-05-01? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 14 $269 −$285 -106%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Rosenborg BK vs. FK Bodø/Glimt end in a draw? Jun 14 $22 −$27 -122%
Will Valencia CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF win on 2026-05-25? Jun 14 $106 −$106 -101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 73% +$1,796
other 26% +$152
culture 1% −$254
politics 0% +$48
world 0% +$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY SPARTA 11¢ $3 1m
Will Japan be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $26 1m
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top global Netflix show thi BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3m
Will "Office Romance" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY No 5¢ $2 3m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Leo Team 59¢ $7 4m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Leo Team 59¢ $22 4m
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top global Netflix show thi BUY Yes 2¢ $1 33m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 5¢ $0 43m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 5¢ $2 43m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 27¢ $2 51m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 30¢ $2 51m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 30¢ $2 51m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 30¢ $2 51m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 30¢ $2 51m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 30¢ $0 51m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 30¢ $2 51m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 30¢ $0 51m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 30¢ $2 51m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 30¢ $2 51m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 28¢ $3 55m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 28¢ $3 55m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 28¢ $2 55m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 30¢ $4 55m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 30¢ $10 55m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 34¢ $12 55m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 34¢ $17 55m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Leo Team 48¢ $1 57m
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top global Netflix show thi BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Türkiye be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 1h
Will Türkiye be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 640 +11.4% +0.8% 25% 23% -49.7%
≤30d 640 +11.4% +0.8% 25% 23% -49.7%
≤90d 640 +11.4% +0.8% 25% 23% -49.7%
all 640 +11.4% +0.8% 25% 23% -49.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover594.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.8% 23% -49.7%
10% ← realistic here -8.8% 19% -54.5%
15% -17.6% 15% -58.9%
20% -25.7% 14% -63.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,552.75 · official $10,550.79 (match) · 3500 history records