Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:13:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f57…f8c5 other 255 markets active 2h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$510 (-6%) realized −$532 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate44%110W / 138L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$243now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$487
14 days−$544
30 days−$452
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$169
sports 23% −$343
world 10% −$80
politics 4% +$72
economics 2% +$73
crypto 1% −$66
finance 1% −$41
culture 1% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -15.3% -23.4% 21% 21% -34.1%
≤30d 73 -24.4% -31.6% 25% 23% -22.8%
≤90d 177 +0.9% -8.7% 40% 38% -16.6%
all 248 -1.7% -11.1% 44% 35% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 35% -15.9%
10% -19.6% 32% -24.0%
15% -27.4% 27% -31.3%
20% -34.5% 24% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$27 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$243
Realized−$532
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses110 / 138
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions6
Markets (closed)248 / 255
History coverage176d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $76 $68 −$8 (-11%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $18 $53 +$35 (+195%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $30 $42 +$12 (+41%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $46 $34 −$13 (-27%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-19%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $47 −$40 -86%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $99 −$91 -92%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $39 −$6 -17%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$1 -7%
Spread: United States (-3.5) Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $60 +$40 +67%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $21 +$39 +180%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $21 −$5 -26%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $60 −$58 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $44 −$29 -67%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $53 +$47 +90%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $22 −$3 -12%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $54 −$54 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $92 −$91 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $92 −$92 -100%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $26 −$3 -13%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $26 +$4 +15%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $25 −$10 -38%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $99 −$96 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $91 −$90 -99%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $20 −$10 -53%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $59 +$21 +35%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $60 +$90 +152%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $54 −$35 -65%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $54 +$546 +1011%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $24 −$14 -58%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $99 −$86 -86%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $104 −$71 -68%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $60 −$55 -92%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $57 +$86 +152%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $61 +$31 +50%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $59 −$49 -84%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $60 +$89 +149%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $21 −$4 -18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $72 +$66 +92%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$127 +250%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $19 −$13 -69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $58 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 32¢ $20 32h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 1¢ $8 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $32 2d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 34¢ $30 2d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 36¢ $3 2d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 39¢ $18 2d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $20 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $13 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 19¢ $19 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 20¢ $20 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $99 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $60 2d
Spread: United States (-3.5) BUY United States 6¢ $6 3d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 16¢ $10 3d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $21 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.10 · official $263.52 · 642 history records