Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:39:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5F 0x5f5a…182e crypto 1349 markets active 0h ago coverage 79d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 79d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,282 (-12%) realized −$5,273 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%580W / 775L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day43.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$9,660
sports 0% +$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 464 -27.6% -34.5% 25% 24% +3.1%
≤30d 954 +0.5% -9.1% 41% 40% +12.5%
≤90d 1355 -0.2% -9.7% 43% 42% +5.1%
all 1355 -0.2% -9.7% 43% 42% +5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 42% +5.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 40% -5.0%
15% -26.3% 37% -14.2%
20% -33.5% 33% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$21 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$5,273
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses580 / 775
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1355 / 1349
History coverage79d ⚠
Avg bet$34
Trades / day43.6
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1355 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Up 33¢ 30¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$10 +652%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 4AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$6 -304%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $14 +$30 +220%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $7 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$4 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 29, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$3 -59%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 30, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 2, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 30, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 24, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 2, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $114 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $105 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $354 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $41 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $52 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $105 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $72 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $52 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $53 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $264 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $53 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $53 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $885 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $106 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $52 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $211 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $533 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $51 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $105 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $105 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $106 55m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.14 · official $210.67 · 3500 history records