Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:06:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f5c…d897 other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$806 (-54%) realized −$677 · open −$129
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$607
14 days−$807
30 days−$807
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$1,083
sports 23% +$146
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +12.7% +1.9% 17% 17% -58.5%
≤30d 8 -15.5% -23.5% 12% 12% -64.8%
≤90d 8 -15.5% -23.5% 12% 12% -64.8%
all 8 -15.5% -23.5% 12% 12% -64.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 12% -64.8%
10% -30.9% 12% -68.1%
15% -37.5% 12% -71.2%
20% -43.7% 12% -74.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$364 vs −$167 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$677
Unrealized−$129
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage7d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-99%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $72 −$43 -59%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $72 −$28 -38%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $77 +$364 +473%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $77 −$75 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $195 −$190 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $654 −$636 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 9¢ $67 2h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 9¢ $67 2h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 1¢ $30 2d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $44 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $72 2d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $72 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $441 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $77 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 8¢ $77 3d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $195 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $654 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 7d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.72 · official $0.72 (match) · 13 history records