Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:13:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
5F 0x5f61…840a weather 1005 markets active 0h ago coverage 149d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 148d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,137 (+3%) realized +$2,140 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate57%571W / 427L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$116
14 days+$305
30 days+$578
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 50% +$2,358
world 16% +$15
other 15% +$66
crypto 6% −$246
culture 4% +$4
politics 4% +$3
tech 3% +$2
economics 1% +$1
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+30.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 +30.0% +17.6% 49% 46% +3.9%
≤30d 448 +18.2% +6.9% 38% 33% +1.0%
≤90d 826 +50.7% +36.4% 53% 46% -0.6%
all 998 +44.6% +30.8% 57% 41% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.8% 41% -7.1%
10% +18.3% 36% -16.0%
15% +6.9% 31% -24.1%
20% -3.6% 27% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +58% → late +32% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$2,140
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses571 / 427
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)998 / 1005
History coverage149d ⚠
Avg bet$83
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 998 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? Yes 78¢ 80¢ $57 $59 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 21? Yes 44¢ 97¢ $7 $15 +$8 (+120%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 21? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 21? Yes 10¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 21? No 51¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+96%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 21? No 62¢ 3¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 21? Yes 12¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 136 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 −$1 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $12 +$6 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $11 +$4 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 +$5 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 +$7 +261%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $20 +$12 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 +$7 +122%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 +$10 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $8 +$9 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $9 +$9 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $4 +$6 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $5 +$11 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 19? Jun 19 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 +$5 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 +$6 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 +$14 +304%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 +$12 +323%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $38 +$8 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 +$18 +830%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $25 +$17 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $39 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $40 +$25 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $14 +$3 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 +$28 +302%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 21? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 15m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 72¢ $9 15m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 21? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 21m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 21? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 30m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 71¢ $0 33m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 71¢ $0 33m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 33m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 71¢ $0 33m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 71¢ $0 33m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 36m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 71¢ $0 38m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 71¢ $0 38m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 21? SELL Yes 90¢ $18 41m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 21? BUY No 51¢ $0 59m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 21? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 21? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 21? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 21? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 21? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 21? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 21? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 80¢ $44 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 62¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 20? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 48¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 20h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 72¢ $11 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.03 · official $75.86 (match) · 3500 history records