Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:17:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f62…e4b1 sports 17 markets active 13h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$11 (+14%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$17
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$9
world 8% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +16.6% +5.5% 43% 43% +12.0%
≤30d 17 -3.9% -13.1% 35% 35% +3.4%
≤90d 17 -3.9% -13.1% 35% 35% +3.4%
all 17 -3.9% -13.1% 35% 35% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 35% +3.4%
10% -21.4% 35% -6.5%
15% -29.0% 29% -15.5%
20% -36.0% 29% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -80% → late +63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage7d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $6 +$2 +29%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $15 +$19 +126%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $6 +$21 +357%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $2 +$7 +373%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 +$2 +85%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +62%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $2 13h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 13h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 13h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 43¢ $0 19h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $1 19h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $2 19h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $2 19h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $2 19h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $2 19h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $2 19h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $2 19h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $2 19h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $0 22h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $2 22h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $2 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 20¢ $0 47h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $2 47h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $2 47h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $2 47h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $9 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 37¢ $0 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records