Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:46:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f69…53a4 politics 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%4W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$14
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% −$3
sports 25% −$2
other 18% −$11
crypto 11% −$2
culture 7% $0
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -25.8% -32.8% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 9 -24.9% -32.0% 11% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 10 -24.3% -31.5% 10% 0% -11.4%
all 48 -9.9% -18.5% 8% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 0% -9.9%
10% -26.3% 0% -18.5%
15% -33.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -40.0% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses4 / 44
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage224d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $88 $88 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $109 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $92 −$2 -2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 −$8 -97%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $97 −$1 -1%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1 $0 -19%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 07 $103 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $216 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $3 −$1 -19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $102 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 09 $110 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $103 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $106 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 26 $1 −$1 -74%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 25 $3 $0 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 25 $105 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $101 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 16 $103 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 13 $220 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 31 $107 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 26 $107 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 23 $110 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 20 $218 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 17 $107 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 16 $110 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 13 $108 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 09 $108 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 04 $112 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 02 $109 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 31 $107 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Dec 28 $111 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 26 $109 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 19 $110 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? Dec 14 $101 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 12 $111 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 09 $108 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 02 $111 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 26 $112 $0 -0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 23 $111 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Nov 21 $111 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 19 $110 $0 -0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 19 $1 $0 -33%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 17 $108 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 15 $114 $0 -0%
Will Getafe win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 12 $113 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 09 $112 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $88 1h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 40h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 40h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $91 40h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $91 2d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 82¢ $90 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $92 5d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 7d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $96 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $97 11d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 13d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 13d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $103 13d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $103 17d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 18d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $106 18d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $106 23d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 101d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 101d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $102 101d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $102 103d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 103d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $103 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.06 · official $90.06 (match) · 198 history records