Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:05:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5F 0x5f6c…cd94 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$154 (+32%) realized +$154 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$107
sports 28% +$169
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +42.4% +28.8% 55% 55% +2.2%
≤30d 11 +42.4% +28.8% 55% 55% +2.2%
≤90d 11 +42.4% +28.8% 55% 55% +2.2%
all 11 +42.4% +28.8% 55% 55% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.8% 55% +2.2%
10% +16.5% 55% -7.6%
15% +5.2% 55% -16.5%
20% -5.1% 27% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$30 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$154
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $79 +$29 +36%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $104 −$76 -73%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $32 −$23 -73%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $32 +$71 +223%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $37 −$7 -19%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $52 +$20 +38%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 +$70 +327%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $38 −$9 -23%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $26 +$11 +40%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $16 +$11 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $42 −$34 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $107 58m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $79 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 27¢ $28 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $104 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 30¢ $32 2h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $103 4h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $32 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 63¢ $30 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $37 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $52 22h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 71¢ $29 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $38 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $26 31h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $16 44h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 44h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $42 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records