Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:18:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5F 0x5f72…e1bf crypto 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$621 (-13%) realized −$611 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%33W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$510
7 days−$159
14 days−$122
30 days−$324
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$71
crypto 44% −$310
other 6% +$47
world 2% +$3
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -8.4% -17.1% 44% 38% -13.6%
≤30d 77 -7.7% -16.5% 42% 38% -15.7%
≤90d 77 -7.7% -16.5% 42% 38% -15.7%
all 78 -7.5% -16.4% 42% 37% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 37% -15.7%
10% -24.4% 36% -23.7%
15% -31.7% 31% -31.1%
20% -38.4% 28% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$45 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$611
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses33 / 45
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage154d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BetBoom Team 42¢ 28¢ $30 $20 −$10 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $112 −$9 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$71 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $118 +$167 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $117 +$182 +156%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $170 −$82 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $312 −$312 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $192 −$178 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $106 +$156 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $211 −$211 -100%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $282 −$280 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $222 +$60 +27%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $149 +$74 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $132 −$59 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $163 +$121 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$14 +34%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $16 +$10 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $22 −$1 -6%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $18 −$4 -21%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -15%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $9 +$3 +30%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -12%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -16%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -66%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +26%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $104 +$128 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $101 +$68 +67%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $50 +$4 +9%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $83 +$54 +65%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $60 +$23 +38%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $14 +$1 +10%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $89 +$5 +5%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $61 +$39 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$29 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$7 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 42¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 54¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $285 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $13 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 57¢ $112 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 0¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $13 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $13 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $12 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $262 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.35 · official $26.79 · 257 history records