Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:31:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5F 0x5f73…e246 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$61 (+38%) realized +$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$4
14 days+$35
30 days+$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$1
sports 41% +$66
weather 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -50.7% -55.4% 33% 17% -13.6%
≤30d 11 +13.9% +3.0% 55% 45% +26.0%
≤90d 11 +13.9% +3.0% 55% 45% +26.0%
all 11 +13.9% +3.0% 55% 45% +26.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.0% 45% +26.0%
10% -6.8% 45% +13.9%
15% -15.8% 36% +2.9%
20% -24.1% 36% -7.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$5 · ×2.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.47 per $1 lost it wins $3.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage23d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $65 +$2 +2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$9 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $16 +$4 +22%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 +$35 +172%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $10 +$20 +197%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $10 +$17 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 39m
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 95¢ $30 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 33h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 33h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 20? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 20? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $16 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $20 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $10 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 33¢ $10 20d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $10 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.22 · official $5.22 (match) · 20 history records