Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:30:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5F 0x5f75…bd97 crypto 168 markets active 1d ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+4%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%50W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days+$14
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -20.7% -28.2% 25% 25% -11.8%
≤30d 48 +32.3% +19.7% 31% 31% -3.3%
≤90d 129 +5.9% -4.2% 31% 31% -5.7%
all 168 +6.7% -3.5% 30% 29% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 29% -7.0%
10% -12.7% 29% -15.9%
15% -21.1% 29% -24.0%
20% -28.9% 26% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$3 · ×2.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses50 / 118
Open positions0
Markets (closed)168 / 168
History coverage154d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 168 Trades
no open positions (117 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $3 +$16 +517%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $15 −$14 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $23 +$15 +65%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $5 +$4 +70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $6 −$5 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $16 +$12 +74%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$18 +214%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $19 −$18 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$17 +473%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $20 −$19 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $21 +$22 +106%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $10 +$7 +63%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $5 +$24 +456%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $2 +$11 +705%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $5 +$4 +79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $1 +$20 +1895%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 27? May 27 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 26? May 27 $5 +$2 +36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 25? May 27 $10 +$4 +44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 26? May 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 26? May 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 74¢ $7 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 44h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 24? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 44h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 44h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 59¢ $21 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 342 history records