Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:29:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f75…c27d crypto 647 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$100 (-1%) realized −$447 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate39%254W / 390L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day164.5pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$500
7 days−$399
14 days−$447
30 days−$447
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$440
other 3% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 583 -8.5% -17.2% 40% 36% -14.5%
≤30d 644 -9.7% -18.3% 39% 34% -14.9%
≤90d 644 -9.7% -18.3% 39% 34% -14.9%
all 644 -9.7% -18.3% 39% 34% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover164.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 34% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 31% -23.0%
15% -33.2% 26% -30.5%
20% -39.8% 21% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$447
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses254 / 390
Open positions3
Markets (closed)644 / 647
History coverage11d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day164.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 644 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Up 14¢ 52¢ $4 $14 +$10 (+268%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Up 20¢ 28¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+34%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Up 12¢ 4¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-67%)
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$6 -46%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$2 -18%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$21 +101%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$8 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -95%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$13 +82%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$9 +36%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $48 +$11 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$20 +166%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +398%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $34 +$10 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$28 +167%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $46 −$5 -11%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$4 +24%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$23 -74%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$6 -15%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$16 +114%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$14 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $7 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $8 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $13 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 1m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $3 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $4 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $9 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $7 4m
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $6 8m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $9 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $9 8m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $15 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $9 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $6 12m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $8 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $8 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 22m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $9 22m
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 22m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 22m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $6 26m
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $4 27m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $7 27m
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 27m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.93 · official $17.74 · 2215 history records