Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:35:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5F 0x5f7d…cd76 world 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 481d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%12W / 16L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$2
other 16% $0
politics 9% $0
economics 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 40% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 +0.1% -9.4% 29% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 14 +0.1% -9.4% 29% 0% -9.2%
all 28 +0.3% -9.2% 43% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.2%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.31 per $1 lost it wins $2.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

481d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses12 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage481d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $76 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $36 $0 -0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $35 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $68 +$2 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $34 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $31 +$1 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $74 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $12 $0 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 26 $10 $0 -5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 05 $2 $0 +5%
Trump Admin confirms Aliens exist in first 100 days? Apr 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? Apr 10 $32 $0 -0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 09 $16 $0 +0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 07 $16 $0 +1%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Apr 02 $16 $0 +3%
Eric Adams out as NYC mayor by March 31? Mar 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 21 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $14 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $23 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $37 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 35¢ $7 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 35¢ $7 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $14 10h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $10 13h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $26 16h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $39 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $39 41h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $28 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $28 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $5 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes $3 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $4 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $39 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $39 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 22d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $36 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $34 22d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $8 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $27 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $34 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $34 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $34 23d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $15 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records