Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:19:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5F 0x5f82…a84a sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,853 (-46%) realized −$1,542 · open −$311
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$678per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2,169
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-50.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -45.3% -50.6% 25% 25% -76.1%
≤30d 4 -45.3% -50.6% 25% 25% -76.1%
≤90d 4 -45.3% -50.6% 25% 25% -76.1%
all 4 -45.3% -50.6% 25% 25% -76.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.6% 25% -76.1%
10% -55.3% 25% -78.4%
15% -59.6% 25% -80.5%
20% -63.6% 25% -82.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -74% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$362 vs −$740 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,173
Realized−$1,542
Unrealized−$311
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$678
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Over 63¢ 56¢ $700 $628 −$72 (-10%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Over 48¢ 34¢ $784 $545 −$239 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Piracicaba: Enzo Kohlmann de Freitas vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 25 $1,163 −$1,143 -98%
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Duje Ajdukovic Jun 25 $305 +$362 +119%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Otto Virtanen Jun 25 $896 −$881 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Dusan Lajovic Jun 25 $200 −$196 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $708 35m
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $796 1h
Piracicaba: Enzo Kohlmann de Freitas vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Enzo Kohlmann de Freitas 34¢ $204 2h
Piracicaba: Enzo Kohlmann de Freitas vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Enzo Kohlmann de Freitas 45¢ $305 3h
Piracicaba: Enzo Kohlmann de Freitas vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Enzo Kohlmann de Freitas 43¢ $654 3h
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Duje Ajdukovic BUY Sumit Nagal 45¢ $305 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Otto Virtanen BUY Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 42¢ $896 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Dusan Lajovic 35¢ $200 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,172.93 · official $1,173.04 (match) · 9 history records