trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 4 | -47.7% | -52.7% | 25% | 25% | -3.0% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -73.6% | -76.1% | 10% | 10% | -54.0% |
| all | 20 | -33.4% | -39.8% | 25% | 25% | -34.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -39.8% | 25% | -34.6% |
| 10% | -45.5% | 25% | -40.8% |
| 15% | -50.8% | 15% | -46.5% |
| 20% | -55.6% | 10% | -51.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Argentina (-1.5) | Argentina | 38¢ | 30¢ | $100 | $78 | −$22 (-22%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 03 | $104 | −$100 | -96% |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 30 | $684 | +$616 | +90% |
| Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) | May 30 | $205 | −$166 | -81% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | May 30 | $264 | −$260 | -99% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? | May 06 | $71 | −$69 | -98% |
| Will Toulon win? | May 02 | $73 | −$73 | -100% |
| Over $3M committed to the Infinex public sale? | Apr 28 | $1,000 | −$1,000 | -100% |
| Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches? | Apr 28 | $399 | −$399 | -100% |
| Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale? | Apr 28 | $2,266 | −$1,026 | -45% |
| Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Apr 28 | $16 | −$16 | -97% |
| Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Feb 17 | $358 | −$48 | -13% |
| Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? | Feb 17 | $811 | +$205 | +25% |
| Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Feb 16 | $282 | −$21 | -8% |
| Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Feb 16 | $200 | −$19 | -9% |
| T20 World Cup: India vs Pakistan (Game 1) | Feb 16 | $265 | +$103 | +39% |
| Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) | Feb 12 | $94 | +$106 | +113% |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | Jan 04 | $226 | −$88 | -39% |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? | Jan 03 | $135 | −$6 | -4% |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | Jan 03 | $461 | +$158 | +34% |
| Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16? | Sep 09 | $200 | −$139 | -69% |