Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:35:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f83…761b sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$119 (-35%) realized −$119 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$50
other 49% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-42.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -35.9% -42.0% 50% 17% -39.8%
≤30d 12 -35.9% -42.0% 50% 17% -39.8%
≤90d 12 -35.9% -42.0% 50% 17% -39.8%
all 12 -35.9% -42.0% 50% 17% -39.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.0% 17% -39.8%
10% -47.5% 17% -45.6%
15% -52.6% 8% -50.8%
20% -57.3% 8% -55.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -72% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$23 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$119
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $25 +$1 +6%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $20 +$5 +23%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $45 +$4 +8%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $40 +$2 +4%
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $41 −$41 -100%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $25 +$16 +62%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $81 −$56 -70%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $26 −$21 -80%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $11 −$10 -89%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 36m
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 81¢ $20 56m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $49 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $45 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 96¢ $40 6h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $41 6h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $25 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $25 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 70¢ $81 24h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $41 26h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Over 4¢ $5 26h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $26 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 28h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 46h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 6¢ $1 47h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $6 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records