Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:42:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

5F 0x5f85…4834 sports 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$1,737 (-13%) realized −$1,737 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip

Net edge-23%after slip

Net WR46%break-even

Win rate46%18W / 21L

Whale WR56%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$355per market

Trades / day2.5pace

Fees−$183est.

Kalshi-fit72%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$99

7 days−$980

14 days−$2,182

30 days−$1,749

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +46%

net ROI/market (all)-23.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	-7.3%	-16.2%	50%	50%	-22.7%
≤30d	39	-15.4%	-23.4%	46%	46%	-20.8%
≤90d	39	-15.4%	-23.4%	46%	46%	-20.8%
all	39	-15.4%	-23.4%	46%	46%	-20.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-23.4%	46%	-20.8%
10%	-30.8%	46%	-28.4%
15%	-37.4%	46%	-35.3%
20%	-43.6%	33%	-41.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -15% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -24% → late -8% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$238 vs −$287 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.71 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$1,737

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)46%

Wins / losses18 / 21

Whale WR (big bets)56%

Est. fees paid−$183

Open positions0

Markets (closed)39 / 39

History coverage22d

Avg bet$355

Trades / day2.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 39 Trades

no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Spain (-5.5)	Jun 21	$101	+$74	+73%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 21	$1,223	−$200	-16%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$506	+$327	+65%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$304	−$300	-99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$498	−$492	-99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	Jun 17	$41	−$40	-99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$1,013	−$1,000	-99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$168	+$87	+52%
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 17	$875	+$590	+67%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$284	+$396	+139%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$507	−$312	-62%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$202	−$200	-99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$452	−$446	-99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$304	−$300	-99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$202	+$137	+67%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 15	$203	+$241	+119%
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	Jun 14	$2	+$2	+97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	Jun 14	$913	+$455	+50%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$203	−$200	-99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$203	+$161	+79%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$12	+$19	+158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$9	+$4	+44%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07?	Jun 09	$102	−$102	-100%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 09	$304	−$304	-100%
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-09?	Jun 09	$102	−$102	-100%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09?	Jun 09	$201	−$190	-95%
Spread: Cambodia (-2.5)	Jun 09	$15	−$15	-98%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09?	Jun 09	$102	−$100	-98%
Spread: Vanuatu (-1.5)	Jun 09	$67	+$33	+50%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5	Jun 09	$550	−$177	-32%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5	Jun 09	$305	−$292	-96%
Niger vs. Mauritania: O/U 2.5	Jun 09	$340	+$164	+48%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	Jun 08	$292	−$288	-99%
Spread: Kosovo (-1.5)	Jun 08	$304	+$188	+62%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5	Jun 07	$284	+$259	+91%
Spread: Cyprus (-1.5)	Jun 07	$661	+$280	+42%
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw?	Jun 02	$525	−$514	-98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02?	Jun 02	$459	−$450	-98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 30	$999	+$858	+86%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Spain (-5.5)	SELL Saudi Arabia	100¢	$175	24m
Spread: Spain (-5.5)	BUY Saudi Arabia	57¢	$101	1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Saudi Arabia	47¢	$203	2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	SELL Spain	52¢	$937	3h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	55¢	$1,019	7h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5	BUY Over	51¢	$304	23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	60¢	$506	25h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	54¢	$498	3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	55¢	$41	4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	55¢	$1,013	4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$255	4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	65¢	$168	4d
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Norway	59¢	$875	4d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$681	4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	19¢	$2	4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	22¢	$193	4d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5	BUY Over	41¢	$284	4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	55¢	$507	5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	68¢	$202	5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5	BUY Over	57¢	$452	6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	57¢	$304	6d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5	BUY Over	59¢	$202	6d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	45¢	$203	6d
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	SELL Germany	100¢	$3	6d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	100¢	$1,369	6d
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	BUY Germany	50¢	$2	7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	66¢	$913	7d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	52¢	$203	7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	100¢	$363	7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	55¢	$203	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 69 history records