Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:45:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5F 0x5f86…a769 other 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 2d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (1692 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$143,259 (+40%) realized +$331,184 · open −$187,925
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,896per market
Trades / day1692.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$144,010now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$81,191
other 39% −$106,753
tech 0% $0
sports 0% −$3
world 0% +$20
politics 0% −$2
economics 0% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-57.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -52.5% -57.1% 33% 22% -99.7%
≤30d 9 -52.5% -57.1% 33% 22% -99.7%
≤90d 9 -52.5% -57.1% 33% 22% -99.7%
all 9 -52.5% -57.1% 33% 22% -99.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1692.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -57.1% 22% -99.7%
10% -61.2% 22% -99.7%
15% ← realistic here -64.9% 22% -99.8%
20% -68.4% 11% -99.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -278% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -278% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6,848 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$144,010
Realized+$331,184
Unrealized−$187,925
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions72
Markets (closed)9 / 45
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$7,896
Trades / day1692.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 72 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ $5,558 $45,519 +$39,961 (+719%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 50¢ 96¢ $10,385 $19,950 +$9,565 (+92%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $2,418 $17,045 +$14,627 (+605%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4,339 $15,687 +$11,349 (+262%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ $968 $7,292 +$6,323 (+653%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ $88,149 $6,964 −$81,185 (-92%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5,261 $4,893 −$368 (-7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5,293 $4,288 −$1,006 (-19%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4,431 $4,121 −$310 (-7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $707 $3,118 +$2,411 (+341%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8,633 $2,331 −$6,302 (-73%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,502 $2,208 +$706 (+47%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,592 $1,322 −$1,270 (-49%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4,729 $1,277 −$3,452 (-73%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3,139 $1,224 −$1,915 (-61%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $320 $624 +$304 (+95%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13,691 $411 −$13,281 (-97%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13,691 $411 −$13,281 (-97%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13,691 $411 −$13,281 (-97%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13,691 $411 −$13,281 (-97%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13,691 $411 −$13,281 (-97%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13,691 $411 −$13,281 (-97%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13,691 $411 −$13,281 (-97%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13,691 $411 −$13,281 (-97%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13,691 $411 −$13,281 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $523 −$13,691 -2619%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $13,691 −$13,691 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $523 −$13,691 -2619%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
o1 FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $6 +$4 +76%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 18 $29 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $8 2m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $15 2m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $25 4m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 5m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 5m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $25 6m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 6m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 7m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $12 7m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 9m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $49 9m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $90 11m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $178 11m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 11m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $15 12m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 14m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $160 14m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $509 14m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $1,874 14m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $1,033 14m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 16m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $69 16m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $14 17m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $12 18m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 18m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $20 19m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $80 20m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $30 21m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $13 21m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $216 21m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144,010.38 · official $144,010.17 (match) · 3500 history records