Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:47:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5F 0x5f87…be27 other 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 190d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$460 (+10%) realized +$553 · open −$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%32W / 39L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$206
7 days+$81
14 days+$81
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$38
sports 29% +$302
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +41.3% +27.8% 62% 62% +14.5%
≤30d 8 +41.3% +27.8% 62% 62% +14.5%
≤90d 29 +14.8% +3.9% 38% 38% -6.8%
all 71 +23.3% +11.6% 45% 45% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.6% 45% -0.4%
10% +0.9% 45% -9.9%
15% -8.9% 44% -18.6%
20% -17.8% 42% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$56 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized+$553
Unrealized−$93
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses32 / 39
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)71 / 74
History coverage190d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner FURIA 61¢ 100¢ $50 $82 +$32 (+64%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Aurora Gaming 49¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Over 51¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $15 +$14 +93%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $41 +$65 +158%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $51 +$39 +76%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $10 +$12 +114%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $49 +$92 +188%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $76 −$75 -98%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 1 - 0 Club Atlético de Madrid? May 05 $15 +$92 +596%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $36 −$35 -98%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 1 - 1 Club Atlético de Madrid? May 05 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 0 - 0 Club Atlético de Madrid? May 05 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $31 +$85 +276%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 04 $51 −$13 -25%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? May 03 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? May 02 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $51 +$96 +188%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $50 −$49 -98%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-20? Apr 20 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $100 +$105 +105%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $126 −$124 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $100 +$101 +101%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $35 +$90 +257%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $35 $0 -0%
Sunderland AFC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Wrexham AFC win on 2026-03-13? Mar 14 $20 +$29 +144%
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-03-12? Mar 12 $16 +$70 +438%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-11? Mar 12 $100 +$133 +133%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $22 +$51 +234%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 06 $100 +$72 +72%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-04? Mar 04 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 02 $20 +$47 +233%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Mar 01 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 23 $50 +$93 +186%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Feb 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $150 −$150 -100%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score Jan 17 $100 +$62 +62%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-08? Jan 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Brentford FC vs. Sunderland AFC: Both Teams to Score Jan 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-07? Jan 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 61¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 49¢ $76 2h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 17h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 51¢ $15 17h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $41 17h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 56¢ $51 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 34¢ $49 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 23¢ $26 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 41¢ $51 2d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-07? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 43d
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-07? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 44d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-07? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 44d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 18¢ $36 45d
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 1 - 1 Club Atlético de Madrid? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 45d
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 0 - 0 Club Atlético de Madrid? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 45d
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 1 - 0 Club Atlético de Madrid? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 45d
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) SELL Manchester City FC 32¢ $38 46d
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) BUY Manchester City FC 41¢ $51 46d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 47d
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $30 47d
Will Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 48d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 49d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-30? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 50d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $50 53d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY No 41¢ $50 56d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $55 60d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $100 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.05 · official $82.05 (match) · 119 history records